It had been a while since David last visited Korea.
He had come all the way to deliver several pieces of news in person, and as soon as he arrived, he headed straight to a traditional Korean restaurant, savoring a steaming bowl of baeksuk.
"Ahh! I don't know why this flavor is impossible to find in America. There's a reason baeksuk is called a health food. I feel my body warming up and all the toxins being flushed out!"
"Why does an American like baeksuk so much? Anyone watching would think you'd lived in Korea your whole life."
"How many years have I been following you around, sir? By now, I'm pretty much half-Korean myself."
"At this rate, you'll be making kimchi with us during kimjang season."
David even finished off the cold sujeonggwa served for dessert with great gusto.
Only then did he begin to reveal the reason for his trip to Korea.
"It looks like the Federal Reserve has decided to taper quantitative easing. It's expected they'll officially announce the reduction soon."
"Who's going to believe the boy who cried wolf anymore? They say they'll scale back quantitative easing, then keep it going, and now they're saying again they'll cut it. "
"Isn't this exactly the situation you wanted, sir?"
"That's long ceased to be interesting. These days, we're only making pocket money."
Of course, preparations had already been made perfectly.
He called it pocket money, but the profit was enough to match what most financial firms earned in a year in a single stroke.
However, the pie wasn't large enough to go around for everyone in the financial tower.
"To chase after what you call pocket money, Wall Street's investment companies are desperate."
"Let them work hard. More importantly, what's happening in Venezuela?"
Quantitative easing was now a discarded card.
The new pie for the financial tower to split was oil.
The scale of this new project was so massive, Venezuela was only a small part of it.
"Things are getting very interesting in Venezuela. As you know, after the long-ruling Chavez died, Vice President Maduro took over as acting president. But since there was still plenty of term left, a new presidential election had to be held."
"I heard Vice President Maduro managed to win the election."
"He scraped by with less than a 2% margin. Actually, exit polls showed the opposing candidate ahead. That's why there are now conspiracy theories swirling in political circles that Vice President Maduro rigged the election."
A corrupt nation and a rigged election always went hand in hand.
Thus, allegations of electoral fraud in the Venezuelan presidential race couldn't simply be dismissed as conspiracy theories.
"Even if concrete evidence emerges, it'll be difficult to overturn the election results. President Maduro has already locked down his grip on power."
"But things aren't unfolding the way they did under President Chavez."
"It can't be helped—support for the president drops as oil prices fall."
During the Chavez era, it was a time of soaring oil prices.
Venezuela could sell its crude at a premium,
and with that flood of revenue being distributed to the people, most citizens gave him their support.
However, from 2012, oil prices had gradually begun to fall, and Venezuela could no longer recklessly dole out benefits as before.
"And now, even in U.S. political circles, there are moves to prepare sanctions against Venezuela."
"There's no need for the U.S. to be dragged along by Venezuela anymore. The moment shale gas enters full-scale mass production, America will begin sanctions."
"I see it the same way. For now, it's only the beginning phase of sanction discussions, and I expect it will take at least another two years before actual measures start."
For now, Venezuela still had an oxygen mask keeping it alive.
If the country chose to act normal, it might manage to survive.
But with President Maduro—the heir to the anti-American Chavez—it was hard to imagine that happening.
"If a third oil war breaks out because of shale gas, the country hit hardest will be Venezuela."
"Will there really be a third oil war? The U.S. would suffer significant losses as well."
The first oil war occurred in 1979:
it was a price war that greatly benefited oil-producing countries.
Naturally, the big winner of the first oil war was Saudi Arabia.
The second oil war came in 1986:
This time, it was the opposite—a war that drove prices down.
The resulting era of cheap oil heavily damaged the Soviet Union, providing a fatal blow that ultimately led to its collapse.
The third oil war would likely resemble the second:
a battle over falling oil prices, with OPEC, including Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Russia, locked in a high-stakes game of chicken.
"Of course, the U.S. will take damage, but they wouldn't pass up a chance to strike simultaneously at Russia and Venezuela—two constant thorns in their side."
"The world situation is about to get very interesting."
"It's too good to just sit back and watch. If we jump in, the profits could make things even more entertaining for us, don't you think?"
David listened to me with a smile.
But then, as if something had suddenly occurred to him, he became serious and his voice grew sharper.
"But if an oil war breaks out, won't shale gas companies go bankrupt one after another? Shale gas production costs are higher compared to oil-producing countries, aren't they?"
"The shale gas companies will indeed face mass bankruptcies. The larger companies will somehow hold on, but those that don't make it into the big three won't have the strength to survive."
"So you're saying Chesapeake won't make it?"
"If the U.S. government doesn't keep supplying it with an oxygen mask, it'll be tough for them to survive. Even if they do survive, it won't be like before."
Chesapeake was the company we had contracted with.
They were in charge of all shale gas development, including the Wagner Ranch in Texas.
We were partners, holding partial shares in Chesapeake.
"Shouldn't we sell our Chesapeake shares now?"
"We might take some losses, but to buy Chesapeake at a bargain price, we need justification. The shares we hold right now provide enough of that."
That was why we chose Chesapeake instead of one of the Big Three companies.
Chesapeake would bear most of the losses from the oil war.
We planned to acquire Chesapeake right before oil prices rose again, after the oil war ended, to reap the profits.
"Is it worth acquiring? If the government is supporting them, doesn't that mean there's almost no chance of recovery?"
"We can make several times the money. Also, for the sake of maintaining good relations with U.S. political circles, it's better for us to own a shale gas company."
This was purely advantageous for us.
By acquiring shale gas companies, we could gain political leverage in the U.S.
And once the oil war ended, there was the potential for big profits from shale gas.
"I won't be able to look the Chesapeake executives in the eye anymore. I do have a conscience, after all."
"There's no need for that. We're buying a company on the verge of collapse, so what's the problem? In fact, we're helping them."
If Chesapeake collapsed because of us, I might feel guilty.
But it would be due to the international situation—not anyone's fault.
And by some miracle, if Chesapeake managed to survive the oil war with minimal damage, that would be something.
Though the chance of that was less than one percent.
"Then we'll proceed accordingly. But Russia's movements are also unsettling. They keep showing their ambitions for the Crimean Peninsula, acting aggressively as if they're actually ready to start a war."
"If they truly intend to start a war, that's exactly why they're acting that way. By next year at the latest, they'll likely move troops to conquer Crimea."
"If Russia shows such moves, won't the U.S. take some kind of action?"
"Obviously, they'll impose sanctions. That will also give them a legitimate reason to kick off the oil war in earnest."
The oil war is the result of many factors intertwined.
Shale gas, Venezuela, the Crimea crisis involving Russia, and the OPEC power struggle led by Saudi Arabia.
It was complex and immense—but complexity wasn't necessarily bad.
It also meant there were many places to make money.
"The moment the U.S. imposes sanctions, won't Russia's economy fall into an abyss?"
"Of course. The financial tower is already strategizing under the assumption that Russia's economy has plunged."
"...Will Taewoo Group be okay? Isn't it the most deeply invested Korean company in Russia?"
Taewoo Group maintained good relations with Russia.
Because of that, they enjoyed cheap supplies of oil and natural gas.
I also held part of the shares in one of the natural gas companies.
So it wasn't exactly a favorable situation for us.
How could all the business divisions be profitable?
Even if the Russia business suffered losses, it was enough to make greater gains elsewhere.
"Foreign companies will withdraw from Russia. But Taewoo Group will continue to stay."
"Is that really okay? It might provoke the White House."
"If they don't try to expand and only maintain the current status, nothing major will happen. And it's your job to calm the White House down."
"I'll do my best to curry favor with the White House!"
David and I talked for over three hours.
I shared a long-term plan with him that hadn't even been told to President Han.
That's how big David's role was as a mediator in the middle.
Of course, I intended to share the long-term plan with President Han soon as well.
***
The Federal Reserve's whims had started again— from tapering quantitative easing to maintaining it, and back to tapering.
That didn't mean the market remained indifferent.
Financial firms affiliated with the financial tower, which had prepared in advance, had been able to earn decent profits.
"Bond prices are rising again, and we're making profits by short selling once more. However, since every financial firm in the financial tower participated in this short selling, the returns aren't as high as before."
"You could say it was an experience in coordinating efforts."
"There's definitely a buzz throughout the entire financial tower. Everyone's busy bragging about their daily percentage gains."
As expected, nothing was better for financial companies than profits.
If they were fed like this for a few more years, foreign financial firms would settle in Korea on their own.
"Everyone's in high spirits. Let's start preparing the next plan."
"If you give me the big picture, I'll take care of fleshing out the details."
President Han was full of confidence.
I told him about the third oil war involving Venezuela, Russia, and OPEC oil-producing countries.
When the story ended, President Han was shocked.
The scale was far beyond any operation previously undertaken.
"First, I think we need to create a timeline and carefully plan step by step."
"How can you plan alone?"
"To be honest, I can't do it alone. I'll need the help of Taewoo Securities' executives and the Taewoo Economic Research Institute to come up with a proper plan."
That was why I liked President Han.
He knew his limits precisely and understood how to compensate for his weaknesses.
"I'll inform the Economic Research Institute. Planning with Director Fukuda will be a great help."
"After gathering information about the international situation—including the U.S.—through David and Dimon, we'll create a definitive plan."
The practice game was over.
The practice game of quantitative easing was child's play compared to the real match—the oil war.
Even with all the financial firms in the financial tower involved, the project's profits were beyond their full grasp.