"Although the election is scheduled for December, it would be fair to say that, in practice, all the parties have already entered full presidential election mode."
Seok-won gave a small nod, as if agreeing with what his older brother, Park Jin-hyung, had said.
"Both the ruling and opposition parties have decided to change their presidential primaries from the old system where only party members could participate to a U.S.-style, nationwide primary. They'll spend several months touring the major regional governments and holding votes as part of a public participation primary. Considering that, just like you said, the presidential contenders from each party are probably making fierce moves behind the scenes already."
"I'm sure that's exactly what they're doing."
Leaning back against the plush sofa, Chairman Park Tae-hong continued.
"The Fair Party will most likely select Choo Tae-guk, who lost in the last presidential election, as their candidate again."
"His standing and base within the party are solid, and on top of that, he has strong public support thanks to his image as a principled, unbending former judge. So that's probably what will happen."
"I think so too."
When Seok-won added his comment, his older brother, Park Jin-hyung, narrowed his eyes sharply.
"Then for the ruling Minpyeong Party, it would have to be former Gyeonggi Governor Bang Jun-tae, right?"
Chairman Park Tae-hong exhaled a stream of white cigarette smoke before replying.
"Probably. He gets mocked as a political turncoat because of his history of switching parties between the ruling and opposition camps, but you can't ignore the fact that he's a three-term veteran and a former governor of Gyeonggi Province."
"And on top of that, he served as the head of the election committee in the last general election and won not only the capital region but also Chungcheong and Gangwon, significantly increasing Minpyeong's number of seats. With achievements like that, it wouldn't be an exaggeration to say he's in a very strong position in the primary."
Within the ruling party, people were already frequently talking about the "Bang Jun-tae is the inevitable choice" theory, so it was only natural that the two of them would think this way.
However, Seok-won, who already knew the outcome of the 16th presidential election, which would unfold with twist after twist like a drama, offered a different opinion.
"I think differently."
"What do you mean by that?"
Under the gaze of his father and older brother, Seok-won began to speak.
"For the Fair Party, Chairman Choo Tae-guk's influence and name recognition within the party are overwhelmingly strong, so like we said earlier, you could practically say he's already been decided as the presidential candidate."
Seok-won shrugged and went on.
"The other candidates who might enter the primary all know very well that it would be hard to beat Chairman Choo Tae-guk. The Fair Party's primary will probably just be for show, so they don't lose momentum to the ruling party, and in the end, it'll conclude with Chairman Choo Tae-guk being put forward as the candidate."
Since it was what everyone had been expecting, the two of them listened while nodding.
"But the situation is different for the ruling Minpyeong Party."
"What's different about it?"
When Chairman Park Tae-hong asked with a cigarette held between his fingers, Seok-won replied calmly.
"It's true that Assemblyman Bang Jun-tae is clearly in the lead in the primary race, to the point that people are even talking about him as the inevitable choice. But unlike the Fair Party, this isn't just for show. The other candidates entering the primary aren't pushovers either."
"Sure, like you said, the Minpyeong Party's primary could get pretty fierce. But in the end, when it comes down to it, won't the votes naturally converge on Assemblyman Bang Jun-tae, who has the strongest overall competitiveness?"
In response to Park Jin-hyung's words, Seok-won showed that he agreed without protest.
"Sure, that could happen. But why do they hold a primary in the first place?"
"That's to win the presidential election this year and bring the administration back to their own party, isn't it?"
"Exactly. But if a candidate is strong in the primary yet weaker than the opposing party's candidate in the general election, wouldn't that give them something to worry about?"
"...!"
"Since they're both leading contenders for the presidency, I'm sure you know that several major media outlets have conducted opinion polls comparing the two."
Seok-won looked back and forth between his father and older brother as he continued his explanation.
"There were slight variations each time, but without a single exception, every poll showed Chairman Choo Tae-guk beating Assemblyman Bang Jun-tae. And not by a razor-thin margin, either. The gap was close to ten percent, well beyond the margin of error."
Chairman Park Tae-hong, his face now heavy with thought, stubbed out the cigarette that had burned down to the filter in the ashtray.
Then he immediately took out a new one, put it to his lips, and lit it.
Watching him, Seok-won finally threw out the crucial point.
"Wouldn't Minpyeong Party members and supporters, who want to hold on to power, start to have doubts about whether they can really win the presidential election by putting up Assemblyman Bang Jun-tae as their candidate?"
"Hearing it that way, I suppose it does sound unsettling."
As Chairman Park Tae-hong nodded in agreement, rubbing his chin with one hand, his older son cut in to argue.
"Right now, Assemblyman Bang Jun-tae is behind, but once the primary is over and the general election begins, won't both sides' support bases consolidate and narrow the gap in approval ratings?"
"Sure, that will probably happen. But based on the separate analysis I conducted, assuming no major variables crop up in the meantime, the results show Chairman Choo Tae-guk beating Assemblyman Bang Jun-tae by a margin of more than five percent."
"Hmm."
Chairman Park Tae-hong let out a low, contemplative hum.
After hearing Seok-won's firm words, Park Jin-hyung also stiffened, his expression growing complicated.
Opinion polls were not one hundred percent reliable, and elections were driven by momentum, so the landscape could always change at any time.
But this was Seok-won's prediction, and he had accurately foreseen who would win the last presidential election with his keen eye, so they could not simply brush it aside.
"What I'm trying to say is that this presidential election is going to be extremely fierce and dirty."
Chairman Park Tae-hong nodded heavily.
"The Fair Party will do everything it can to reclaim the power it lost, and on the other hand, the Minpyeong Party will do whatever it takes to protect the Blue House, which they captured for the first time in fifty years."
"Since both sides will be going at it with grim determination, even after the results come out, unless one side wins decisively, they won't accept it easily."
"That's probably true."
Seok-won leaned forward in his seat and said,
"So that's why I think it would be better not to provide any campaign funds to either side in this presidential election."
Chairman Park Tae-hong, who had expected them to back the most likely candidate just like in the last election, frowned and looked at his second son.
Park Jin-hyung also asked back with a startled expression.
"Not give a single won in campaign funds?"
"That's right."
At the blunt answer, Chairman Park Tae-hong exhaled a stream of cigarette smoke, his eyes sinking into a heavy gaze.
"It would be better to split it between both sides in moderation, like last time. You do realize that if you completely stay out because the outcome is hard to predict, our position could become very awkward after the election is over."
"Of course I know that."
Chairman Park Tae-hong stubbed out the cigarette he had barely smoked in the ashtray, then asked in a serious tone.
"And even so, you're saying we shouldn't give any campaign funds?"
"Yes. If we're not careful, it could end up being the worst possible move."
Park Jin-hyung also looked at his younger brother with eyes full of disbelief.
"The reason I'm saying we shouldn't give any campaign funds is that, no matter which side wins, once the election is over and they start tearing into each other, the issue of illegal campaign funds is bound to come up."
"Isn't that something that's always happened after every election?"
Park Jin-hyung also spoke in a calm tone, as if it were nothing worth making a fuss over.
"As Father said, there's always been a big uproar about illegal political funds every election, but just like always, it'll make noise at first and then quietly get swept under the rug this time too."
But Seok-won faced his father and brother with a stern expression.
"Up until now, both the ruling and opposition parties have been just as dirty, so even while they pointed fingers at each other and fought, they never crossed the line and always ended up burying things at an appropriate level. But now the situation is different."
"…?"
"Do you remember how, after the last presidential election, the heads of chaebol groups were lined up one after another at the prosecutors' photo line and humiliated with investigations over the campaign fund issue?"
At that, a flash of displeasure crossed Chairman Park Tae-hong's face.
"Of course. I was investigated too. How could I forget that?"
"Because of that incident, the entire public ended up learning about the existence of presidential campaign funds, which until then everyone had only suspected but had never really been exposed. And with the real-name financial system in place, it's become impossible to use pseudonymous, borrowed-name, or anonymous accounts, which has also made money laundering much harder."
In fact, even though Seok-won had warned him and he had prepared, Chairman Park Tae-hong still had a hard time cleaning up his slush funds, and his face twisted into an uncomfortable frown.
"Even now, Director Gil seems to be getting a headache over how to raise campaign funds because of that."
They had more than enough cash, but the problem was how to take out and move a huge sum of money without leaving any trace in the group's accounting books.
"Since we can't use borrowed-name accounts, we have no choice but to hand over large amounts of cash directly. And if it comes to that, too many hands get involved, and it becomes much easier for the word to leak outside."
Realizing what he meant, Chairman Park Tae-hong let out a low, troubled hum.
"Hm. So what you're saying is that the chaebol chairmen will end up being investigated by the prosecutors over campaign funds again?"
"Yes. Since this election is going to be fought so fiercely, neither the ruling party nor the opposition will accept the result easily. And once they start attacking each other, the issue of illegal campaign funds will inevitably come up."
Seok-won continued, looking at Chairman Park Tae-hong, who had his arms crossed and his brows drawn together.
"Since campaign funds have already become a problem once before, the courts will hand down much harsher punishments this time."
"You're not saying they'll give real prison sentences instead of suspended ones, are you?"
"There's a high chance they will."
Seok-won spoke in a tone of firm conviction as he looked at his older brother, who was wearing a stunned expression.
Then he turned his head and met Chairman Park Tae-hong's eyes.
"I told you this last time too, but I really don't want to see you wearing a prison uniform and being locked up in a cold cell."
Just imagining it seemed unpleasant, because Chairman Park Tae-hong clicked his tongue with a troubled look.
"If we follow what you're saying, we might avoid a prosecutor's investigation, but wouldn't we end up getting on the bad side of both parties and make it difficult to run the company going forward?"
In fact, no matter how powerful a chaebol group was, they had seen many cases where falling out of favor with the administration led to severe trouble, or in the worst cases, even the dismantling of the entire group. So Chairman Park Tae-hong couldn't help but worry.
Park Jin-hyung also looked deeply troubled.
"You don't need to worry about that."
At that, Chairman Park Tae-hong asked with a hopeful look.
"Do you have a solution in mind?"
"At the very least, when it comes to the Daehung Group, you have me behind you."
Seok-won confidently thumped his chest with one hand.
"If the Blue House or the political establishment tries to pressure us or disadvantage us over the campaign fund issue, I'll make them regret ever touching us."
"And how do you plan to do that?"
At that, a cold smile formed at the corner of Seok-won's mouth.
"I'll start by having some American politicians I'm on good terms with talk to them and try to resolve it nicely. And if that doesn't work, then I won't have any choice but to use force."
"...Use force? What exactly are you planning to do?"
In response to Park Jin-hyung's question, Seok-won replied in a voice that radiated cold menace.
"First, I'll dump all nine billion dollars' worth of the foreign exchange stabilization bonds we're holding at once. Then I'll take unlimited short positions against Korean government bonds and the won, and drive the exchange rate up to 1,600 won."
"What?"
At the completely unexpected and violent plan, not only his brother but even Chairman Park Tae-hong swallowed hard.
"If the stock market falls into panic and the exchange rate blows through the ceiling, don't you think it'll snap them wide awake?"
Park Jin-hyung asked with a face that had gone pale.
"Are you saying you'd trigger a second IMF-style foreign exchange crisis?"
"That's about what it would take for them to really understand who they messed with."
It wasn't empty bravado. Knowing that Seok-won truly had the ability and the resources to do exactly that made his words all the more frightening.
The two of them felt flustered, but at the same time, oddly reassured.
After staring blankly at his second son for a moment, Chairman Park Tae-hong finally broke into a hearty laugh.
"Hahaha! With Seok-won around, what is there to be afraid of that we'd have to tiptoe around politicians?"
"Then you really won't provide any campaign funds, just like Seok-won said?"
Chairman Park Tae-hong gave a big nod.
"That's right. I've always hated how those politicians come around every election season and squeeze money out of us like it's something we've set aside for them. This might be a good opportunity to draw a clear line once and for all."
"But…"
Park Jin-hyung, who had been trailing off with a face that still could not shake off his worries, looked at Seok-won sitting across from him and let out a resigned sigh.
"Whew, all right. To be honest, I haven't liked being shaken down like this either."
"Then let's settle it. We won't give any campaign funds."
"Yes."
Watching the two of them, who now seemed to have firmly made up their minds, Seok-won let out a quiet sigh of relief inside.
At least now, his father and brother would be able to avoid getting caught up in the illegal campaign fund scandal that would later rock the entire country. That alone made it worth it.