"Logically, that should be the case. But this world... doesn't operate on logic," the ambassador said with a mysterious smile, delivering what seemed like a profound philosophical remark before continuing. "The Iron Bank's risk control department, after conducting a personality analysis, concluded that the Queen would refuse this request. However, they also observed that she currently lacks a full-time Master of Coin and is a monarch who humbly accepts advice and values the opinions of those around her. If we can first communicate with, or even reach agreements with, key advisors such as the Lord Commander, Lord Petyr, and Lord Varys, then there is still room to maneuver in this matter."
At least the risk control department wasn't earning its salary for nothing. Both assessments were accurate: asking Daenerys Targaryen to repay money her enemies had borrowed and squandered was utterly absurd, but if the three Hands she valued most were unanimous in urging her to assume the debt, she would likely do so—albeit through clenched teeth and suppressed fury.
But here was the real question: what would he gain by persuading the Queen to repay a sum she had never borrowed in the first place?
"Inheriting this debt concerns the national credit of the Westerosi Kingdom. If the Queen is willing to show good faith and sincerity, her new realm can be recognized and accepted by the Free Cities the moment it is established. Trade will resume immediately, perhaps becoming more prosperous than ever," Tycho continued without waiting for Aegor's reply, still smiling and patient as he guided the conversation. "Furthermore, the Iron Bank will also provide financial support for Her Grace's campaign to reclaim the Seven Kingdoms. Of course, considering that this debt was neither requested nor spent by her, and that she is not directly responsible for the overdue payments, the senior figures at the Iron Bank have also thoughtfully agreed to offer leniency: the interest on this loan will be waived and cease accruing. The Queen need only repay the principal gradually when repaying her future loans. Two million golden dragons may sound like a huge sum, but with the Seven Kingdoms' tax base as a buffer, and stretched over several decades, it would not constitute a heavy financial burden."
As a seasoned ambassador, Tycho Nestoris chose his words with care. But Aegor, no stranger to diplomacy himself, could easily extract a great deal of subtext from the exchange.
The first line, "Inheriting this debt concerns the national credit of the Westerosi Kingdom," really meant: if the Queen refuses to honor the debt, the Iron Bank will consider her new realm untrustworthy, and future borrowing will be out of the question. The next statement was no better: unless the Queen accepts the debt, she may not gain recognition from the Free Cities, and trade between Westeros and Essos could be limited, or even severed.
The second half of the proposal carried a veiled threat: if the Queen refused, the Iron Bank might resume support for her enemies. And finally, in true Braavosi fashion, they softened the blow by offering a small concession, suggesting that if the Queen accepted the debt, a discount would be offered.
...
No wonder Tycho hadn't dared approach Daenerys directly. If she heard this proposal in full, she might well feed him to her dragons.
A sudden wave of anger rose in Aegor's heart, but he suppressed it with reason before it could boil over. Whether or not to inherit Robert Baratheon's massive debt might seem like a simple economic issue, but in truth, it was a matter of high politics—one that rose far above questions of personal gain or emotion. At such a level, it was foolish to let personal feelings dictate policy, or to adopt the simplistic mindset of "I didn't borrow it, so I won't repay it."
The real question here was not whether Daenerys should repay the money Robert borrowed, but whether a new regime should inherit the residual debt of the old regime it had overthrown.
Putting aside emotional bias and looking at it rationally, that question immediately became worth serious consideration.
---
Aegor didn't know much about the history of Westeros prior to his transmigration, so for now, he could only refer to the history of Earth. After thinking it over, the answer was both unexpected and counterintuitive: during regime changes, not only should debt theoretically be inherited, but in most cases, new governments do exactly that.
Why would new regimes willingly recognize debts they didn't incur?
There were many reasons, both economic and political.
From an economic perspective, unrestricted cash loans were not like war reparations or exploitative treaties—those were bad debts. When Robert Baratheon began borrowing from the Iron Bank, the Targaryen dynasty had already fallen. Except for a small portion used to suppress Balon Greyjoy's rebellion, the vast majority of the two million golden dragons were spent by the Usurper on royal feasts, rewarding his loyal lords, maintaining royal prestige, and improving infrastructure. While the gold and silver had long been squandered, it had not left Westeros. Which meant that when Daenerys eventually unified the realm, she might find the treasury in King's Landing empty, but the wealth had already been injected into the gears and pipes of the state machine—greasing its wheels, sustaining its structure.
In plain terms: the money remained in the hands of the people.
As far as Aegor knew, the Iron Bank's loans were issued in actual gold and silver, not paper currency. Aside from the relatively high interest rate (he didn't know the exact figure, but it clearly exceeded 5% annually), there was no deception involved. The new regime might not have seen a single copper, but it was not inheriting a treasury, it was inheriting a kingdom. And the kingdom had benefited from that influx of gold.
This was why the individual logic of "I didn't borrow it, I won't pay it back" did not apply at the national level.
Moreover, regime changes were often accompanied by instability and a desperate need for funds. If a powerful financier offered to continue lending—if the new regime would acknowledge the prior debt—it was a tempting offer indeed.
Politically, the stakes were even higher. A newly established regime's first priority was to secure recognition from the international community, whether formally or in practice. Unless it was a rogue state with no interest in foreign relations and no fear of retaliation, the simplest path to recognition was to guarantee the property and interests of foreign powers within its borders—including inherited debt.
---
After thinking for a bit, Aegor realized he might be overcomplicating it. Until a truly global government existed, sovereign states were the highest authority. Barring threats from stronger nations, no one could force them to inherit past debts.
This debt, the Queen could accept it or not. No one would arrive with a royal summons if she refused.
So the real question wasn't "should it be inherited," but "does it need to be inherited?"
Once emotion was set aside, and with morality, law, propriety, honor, and shame stripped away, all that remained was interest. Cold, practical, and absolute.
Those regimes that chose to inherit the debts of the previous one usually either needed something from the creditors or feared retaliation. In such cases, even the worst debts—unjust ones, exploitative ones—might still be acknowledged, not out of obligation, but necessity.
But what about a new regime that neither needed the creditors nor feared them?
Naturally, it could refuse without hesitation. Not only bad debts, even fair and reasonable ones could be denied. If you had the strength, come take it back. If not, then the money simply ceased to exist.
So whether Daenerys should inherit the debt of House Baratheon upon claiming the Iron Throne didn't depend on who borrowed the money, or on her personal honor. It depended on whether the new Targaryen regime needed the Free Cities, or feared them.
Did she?
Aegor wished the answer were no, but after a moment of cold reflection, he realized that was not the case.
Westeros was not like the Celestial Empire. It had no long history of unification, no deeply-rooted national identity. The Seven Kingdoms had only recently been united in name, and the "Great King's Landing Plan" he had proposed to Daenerys was a sweeping reform. Implementing it would stir up enormous resistance and backlash from the old nobility. No one knew how many years it would take to fully stabilize the realm.
In such circumstances, alienating foreign allies and financial backers was the last thing they needed. That would mean trouble inside and out.
"Lord Commander," Tycho said with a smile, noting Aegor's thoughtful expression. He preferred dealing with rational men like this—he usually succeeded with them. "I trust you already have your thoughts on the matter. But please be assured, I am not asking you to immediately meet with Her Grace and convince her to acknowledge the debt. I am merely here to make initial contact... and also to deliver a final instruction from my superiors. It is meant for you alone."
Seeing that Aegor said nothing, only looking up silently, the ambassador smiled and did not dare keep him waiting.
"The instruction is this: if Her Grace ultimately agrees to inherit the Baratheon debt, regardless of whether the decision is made based on your opinion, the Iron Bank will waive the Night's Watch's debt of one hundred thousand golden dragons."
...
Oh?
So now they're trying to buy me?
Aegor's expression turned cold. The people from the Iron Bank were certainly clever. It sounded generous — "regardless of whether the decision is made based on your opinion" — but in reality, he knew very well: as the Queen's strongest supporter and the commander of her greatest force, if he opposed the proposal, there was no way Daenerys would agree.
The Iron Bank was offering to cancel the Night's Watch debt in exchange for his cooperation—or at the very least, his silence.
Thinking further, it was likely Tycho's companions were offering Petyr and Varys similar deals. Even if it cost the Iron Bank a hundred thousand golden dragons per person, as long as they secured Daenerys through this roundabout approach, it would be a bargain. For three hundred thousand, they could gain two million in return, along with a long-term client and three covert allies. Hardly a bad investment.
But the truth was, that loan had been used to fight the White Walkers. It was a public debt, not personal. The repayment would come from official funds, possibly with help from defense subsidies. It had nothing to do with Aegor's personal finances. Whether it was waived or not — why should he care?
As if reading his thoughts, Tycho added quickly, "Of course, if the Lord Commander is not satisfied, there is another option. We will not publicly announce the debt is waived. We will continue collecting repayments as usual, but the money will not go into the Iron Bank's accounts. Where it goes — whose name it lands under — that is entirely up to you. How does that sound?"
(To be continued.)