Either stupid or wicked?
That accusation was a bit too heavy, and coming from a highly respected elder, its destructive power was astonishing. The hawkish faction in the room immediately gained momentum, while the dovish faction fell silent. It was not until a long while later that one dove recovered, stiffened his neck, and launched a counterattack.
"Messages across the Narrow Sea take weeks to travel back and forth, while the advance speed of the Night's Watch and Daenerys is measured in days. Our usual tactic of 'supporting the opposition to restrain' has completely lost the time and space needed to be implemented. Twice in a row now, we had just selected an agent and were ready to begin full financial support when he was defeated on the battlefield. According to intelligence, the reason is that the Gift Army possesses a new weapon of astonishing power. Its firing sound is like thunder, its range can span the Blackwater Rush, and its power is enough to penetrate wooden city gates. The Night's Watch even flexibly equipped it on ships in the decisive battle against the Iron Fleet. Just over a dozen of them helped House Targaryen simultaneously defeat the Baratheon royal fleet and Euron's new Iron Fleet. At this moment, the arsenal outside King's Landing is in full production of this new weapon. After analysis and evaluation, scholars and think tanks in Braavos have concluded that our fleet is completely unable to match it. We did not make this up!"
"Not made up, that's right. It just proves the old saying, peace breeds corruption." Gorden sneered. "Braavos has been at peace for too long. The thinking of these scholars and so-called analysts is ossified, their thought processes are simplistic, so it is understandable that they cannot turn their minds around. But within this room, among the elite of the House of Keyholders, how can such voices exist? When has Braavos ever only considered whether our army could win when deciding foreign policy? When the city-state was first established, could we defeat Valyria? One hundred seventy years ago, when Viserys Targaryen II married the daughter of the Rogare Bank, and the latter, with the strength of Lys and Westeros, challenged the position of the Iron Bank, could we defeat the combined forces of those two countries? Are we supposed to surrender and hand over the Iron Bank's financial position every time we compare military strength and find the probability of victory low?!"
"Bang!"
With a sudden sound, he heavily slammed the table. "Yes, we might very well be unable to defeat Daenerys and her Night's Watch, eunuch soldiers, savages from Beyond the Wall, and cobbled-together fleet equipped with cannons. But confrontation is never just about war. Not to mention, even if we consider only war, at least at this moment, we still have the other eight Free Cities and the Reach, the head of the Seven Kingdoms, in the same camp. Right now, we are only 'possibly' unable to defeat her. If we delay for a while, waiting until Daenerys pacifies the Reach, then reclaims the Vale, integrates the resources of Westeros, then defeats the anti-Dragon Queen alliance of Volantis, eliminates all potential allies, and finally forces her way to the gates of Braavos, how should we respond then? This war, either do not fight it, or fight it early, fight it immediately!"
Suppressing the lively atmosphere of debate, Gorden changed the subject.
"However, do not think that just because I said 'either do not fight' means my stance is still undecided. Regarding the question of whether to fight or not, today I must properly brainwash certain people in this room! A dangerous ideology is gradually emerging and spreading in Braavos, corrupting the very lifeblood of this city-state, shortsightedness! Weighing pros and cons when making decisions is certainly not wrong in itself, but can the 'pros' and 'cons' here only take into account what is right in front of us?" Gorden sternly rebuked them in a tone of disappointment. "To give the simplest example, when we find that the cost required to recover a debt exceeds the debt itself, can we resolutely give up pursuing this debt?"
"For an individual, decisively cutting losses may be a wise choice, but the Iron Bank is an organization that lives by lending." A hawk immediately understood and took over the conversation. "If the target is a power, a country, and we give up recovery because the difficulty of collecting the debt is too great and the cost is too high, then what we lose will not only be the debt itself, but also the damage to the iron rule that 'the Iron Bank does not tolerate arrears.' In the future, there will be a constant stream of monarchs who, having gained some confidence in their own strength, try to default. In the long run, that is the greater disadvantage!"
"I completely agree with this, but..." Someone immediately retorted. "What Daenerys is doing now is not failing to repay the money, but negotiating an acceptable repayment plan with us?"
"Well said!" Gorden tapped the table with his fingertips, drawing everyone's attention back, then raised his arm and pointed at the questioner. "Everyone look carefully. If 'fearing war at the sight of the enemy's sharp weapons' is the first kind of 'stupid' in 'either stupid or evil,' then what has now jumped out into everyone's view is the second kind!"
Ignoring the twisted expression on the named man's face, a mixture of confusion, bewilderment, anger, and shock, the old man continued speaking without pause. "Are the Iron Bank's intangible benefits limited to the reputation of 'not tolerating arrears'? No, there is also credit and financial dominance! This power is ethereal, existing only in people's hearts, but in some ways it is also indestructible. Today, that dwarf Tyrion Lannister proposed using Targaryen Bonds to settle the Iron Bank's debt. Does anyone truly believe this is just 'repaying the money in another form'?"
"Utterly foolish!"
After taking a breath, he suddenly roared, startling everyone.
Perhaps he had exerted too much force in shouting those words. Gorden coughed several times, and with the gentle patting of the young woman beside him, he slowly recovered his breathing before continuing.
"The essence of Targaryen Bonds is a financial product whose effectiveness and credit have not yet gained widespread recognition. Anyone who pays a little attention to intelligence knows that so far Daenerys has been promoting them by forcing them on meritorious officials and follower families. At this point, the Iron Bank gladly accepts Daenerys's suggestion and settles the debt with bonds. What is this? You can say it is 'the Queen repaying the debt in the form of bonds,' but I say this is 'the Iron Bank using millions of golden dragons paid in advance to purchase bonds from the Westeros Bank'! This action, taken by the world's financial center, is giving endorsement and providing advertising, legitimacy, and credit to a nascent potential competitor across the Narrow Sea!"
"If the Westeros Bank had paid a high price to obtain this endorsement, we might perhaps discuss whether the price was enough, although I cannot say how much would be enough. But now, they are using money that rightfully belongs to us to threaten us into accepting their terms? Do they expect the decision-makers of the Iron Bank to have water in their brains, and foolishly hand over their most valuable wealth to a competitor? We are lenders. Since when did we become philanthropists?!"
This line of reasoning was actually not complicated, nor was it new. One could say that during the more than ten days of debate and argument, the hawkish faction had already systematically analyzed these points. It was just that, without an authority figure present to control the situation, the debate between hawks and doves was often like chickens talking to ducks, each side speaking its own language, and no one could make the other calm down, listen carefully, and analyze its own viewpoint.
"I said long ago that this is self-destruction, but some people just would not listen!"
"More than that! Bonds can be used to exchange for gunpowder weapons, but the price, and when they will be delivered, there are no promises on these crucial points of information. This means how much our more than two million golden dragons can buy, and when we can get it, is entirely up to the other side. How sinister and malicious is this plan!"
With the elder's support, the already dominant hawkish faction gained an overwhelming advantage. The not-so-large room filled with their clamor of agreement and gloating accusations. Those of weak will among the doves had already changed their stance. The few who originally had not been thinking clearly were also shaken after hearing Gorden's detailed analysis from multiple angles. The voices of opposition had become almost inaudible. "But all these things can be agreed upon when signing the formal agreement, right? At worst, we can just declare that we only accept payment in cash, can't we?"
"Enough, stop!" While dissenters were indeed either stupid or wicked, pigheaded teammates could sometimes be just as annoying. Gorden frowned impatiently and glared at the few younger members who were still muttering. "Do not get off topic! In this matter, whether the bonds are repaid with military supplies or cash is not the key at all! The key is the transformation of debt into bonds itself, and only that! As long as we are careless for a moment and choose to accept, the Westeros Bank will burrow in like a mouse through our sturdy gate, making a hole in the Iron Bank's indestructible mountain of credit, secretly transferring away a portion of our intangible wealth, financial influence. This transfer and siphoning will remain silent for a long time, as if it does not exist, until we belatedly realize it and are shocked to discover that Braavos's economic foundation is already riddled with holes like wood eaten by termites, ready to crumble at a poke. The situation will deteriorate to the point where even the reincarnation of the original twenty-three Keyholders could not save it!" Gorden swept the room with sharp eyes. "Ladies and gentlemen, when the future 'History of the Decline of Braavos' describes this period, which moment will it mark as the beginning of our decline?"
After a pause of two or three seconds, more than one person spoke the answer.
"From the moment the Iron Bank of Braavos accepted Daenerys Targaryen I using bonds to settle the debt!"
The answer was obviously correct, and Gorden nodded in approval. "What is stupidity? It is when others are eyeing your capital, yet you are still thinking about the profits he promised. When others are coveting the wealth and livelihood behind you, you are still thinking about the debt you lent him. When others come to take your life, your mind is still full of business! Let us talk about the Targaryen Bonds themselves. Using paper to exchange for real gold and silver, anchoring currency value with something other than precious metals, playing finance with more than ten times the efficiency. This is a concept, a dream, or perhaps a delusion, that countless bankers, myself included, have long harbored. It is a pity that I could not find a way to take this step even after exhausting half my life. Who would have thought that in my old age, with one foot in the grave, I would unexpectedly see someone across the sea beginning to try to turn this idea into reality!"
"Emotionally, I even somewhat want to join this game." Gorden sighed with a hint of melancholy, and his previously intense tone also became low and steady. "Unfortunately, reason tells me that the other side is unlikely to offer me the position of partner, and firearms are far from a reliable ideal anchor that can replace precious metals. This matter is not very reliable. Yet, looking at the astonishing experiences and victories of Daenerys and Aegor, I do not dare arrogantly conclude that they will fail..."
His tone rose again, becoming firm and cold. "But there is at least one thing I can confirm, and that is this: Daenerys across the Narrow Sea and the black-robed Hand of the Queen are attempting a great undertaking that will reshape the entire order of Westeros and even the world. And as the greatest beneficiary of the existing world order, we in Braavos, one could say that what they want to shake is precisely our foundation, the core interest of this city-state, which matters more than anyone present. The Westeros Bank and the second Targaryen dynasty behind it are not simply a 'competitor,' but our mortal enemy! It is here to take our lives. Two million golden dragons are actually insignificant in this matter. In competition and confrontation with a mortal enemy, as long as we achieve final victory, losing ten thousand to wound the enemy by one thousand is acceptable. This is the final moment. At such a time, still thinking about these issues with a businessman's mindset is stupid!"
By this point, the doves had completely lowered their banners and retreated into a corner, but Gorden's relentless pursuit was still not over.
"Those who sincerely believe we should accept the bonds and negotiate peace with the new Targaryen dynasty, I call them stupid. So what about evil?" He paused, letting the strange and awkward atmosphere spread through the room, and only after a good while did he continue. "There are quite a few people in this room who can clearly see that something is seriously wrong, who realize that this course of action is harmful to Braavos's interests, but because they accepted generous wealth from a certain dwarf, they are speaking for Daenerys against their conscience. There are more important matters at hand right now. I will neither propose nor agree to pursue and settle accounts over this, but I ask those who know it in their hearts to mind themselves!"
After sweeping the attendees with a cold gaze, he finally turned his fire on his own side. "As for those who have firmly opposed this from the start, do not become complacent too early! You clearly judged the pros and cons, saw the long-term future, and held the absolute advantage, so why did you waste more than half a month engaging in pointless debate and argument with that small group of either stupid or evil people, and fail to realize that in the absence of agreement, you should first use the resources at hand to do something, such as electing a temporary Sealord's proxy to break the deadlock? We have already missed the best opportunity to support and cooperate with the Reach against Daenerys. In the second round of confrontation, after losing the first, we were also utterly defeated! I even dare make a bold bet that within a month, news will come from across the Narrow Sea that 'the Reach has surrendered, and the line of Garth Greenhand has lost power and been annihilated'... The scales of victory are rapidly tipping toward the enemy, and we have not even begun to prepare a counterattack!"
"In view of this, I, an old man already retired, with boundless love and loyalty for Braavos, will today presumptuously act as a dictator for once. No one is leaving. The subject will shift directly from 'Should we go to war with Daenerys?' to 'How do we overthrow the old dynasty restored by the Dragon Queen!'"
(To be continued.)