If one wants to meddle in the Russo-Japanese War, then preparations must be made in advance. In every major war before, Ernst was able to profit as he had already laid out the relevant plans. Now, Ernst is facing three possibilities: first, the Russo-Japanese War is delayed; second, the Russo-Japanese War does not happen; third, it follows the same path as in the previous life.
The possibility of an early outbreak is almost nonexistent, because due to Ernst, Japan's overall level is not as strong as in the previous life, and Tsarist Russia hasn't made much progress compared to before. Moreover, the Russian-Turkish War and the Western Regions War didn't go as smoothly as in the previous life, so even if the two countries were to go to war, it is unlikely to be earlier.
