Chapter 396: Conjectures
Realizing that fact, Johnson no longer tangled with this "minor" matter of East Africa invading Griqualand. Griqualand was nothing more than a tiny, impoverished place. When the Cape Colony government first assigned him here, he felt it was like exile. Now he might as well go back to Cape Town.
"Mr. Mölk, let's set aside this issue for now. I must return to Cape Town and report the situation. Ultimately, the question of how to deal with Griqualand's ownership will be decided by the big figures in the Cape Town government. I won't bother continuing a pointless argument with you here," Johnson said to Mölk.
Mölk replied, "Of course, nothing is absolute. Sometimes one misunderstanding can be solved if both parties sit down and talk frankly, and a crisis can vanish into thin air."
"Yes, nothing is impossible to discuss, and that will benefit both sides. So I hope from now on, sir, you'll show us some courtesy and won't make trouble for us on the way back," Johnson responded.
"Naturally." Mölk told his adjutant, "Assign Mr. Johnson a detachment of our men to escort him and his party to the far side of the Orange River."
"Yes, Commander."
After that, Mölk said to Johnson, "Oh, and Mr. Johnson, I have to clarify: our troops can only escort you to the Orange River. Beyond that, it's no longer our jurisdiction."
"Heh, thank you for the reminder, General. But I'm quite sure across the Orange is safe enough. I trust my own people."
Johnson had already hinted to Mölk for his own safety. Mölk, of course, wouldn't harm Johnson — he is, after all, an official of the British Empire. Should something happen to him on East African soil, it would truly be a slap in the face to Britain at the height of its power.
Johnson was anxious to get back to Cape Town with his news. In fact, the Cape Colony was more aware of the big picture than Johnson himself was. Anyone, even a blind man, could sense the commotion caused by East Africa's large-scale military moves in South Africa.
If there's anyone even more tense about it than the British, it's the Portuguese. Among the Western powers, Portuguese Mozambique has the best grasp of the East African Kingdom's activities.
The sudden appearance of Felix's army in the Kingdom of Swaziland truly startled Mozambique. Since the city of Maputo in Mozambique lies just beside the Swazi Kingdom, they couldn't possibly miss any upheaval in Swaziland.
Mozambique's colonial administration knew East Africa had long been carrying out operations inland, but given that there were several native states in between, they only had a broad sense of it—like the big event when the Matabele Kingdom was wiped out by East Africa. However, the Matabele Kingdom is still somewhat distant from Mozambique, and several states that emerged after the Monomotapa Kingdom split lie between East Africa and Mozambique, serving as a buffer. All this gave Mozambique a sense of security.
But once East Africa occupied Swaziland, it meant that Mozambique now directly borders East Africa on its southern side. Effectively, East Africa forms a triple encirclement of Mozambique's colony.
Nevertheless, the Mozambique governor, who had learned a bit about East Africa's military strength by now, realized that Mozambique's forces were in no position to pick a fight with them. Likely even Portugal back home couldn't do much against these Germans, so it simply decided to do nothing: as long as the East African Kingdom doesn't attack Mozambique, they'll act as if they saw nothing.
Mozambique never really understood the East African Army's exact military power, but they knew it to be strong. By observing the military outposts that East Africa set up on their shared border, they could guess East Africa's fighting capacity. In just the eastern part of Mozambique's border alone, East Africa seemed to station several thousand to ten thousand troops—and that was only one portion of East Africa's forces assigned to watch Mozambique. The total number of East African soldiers was anybody's guess.
…
Cape Town.
"According to merchants returning from the Transvaal, the East African Kingdom seems to have deployed somewhere over ten thousand troops. Not only that, the Natal Colony also reports news of a new force fighting the Zulu Kingdom—not the Boers. Judging by their uniforms, they look like some Germanic country's troops, probably of considerable size. Unless I'm mistaken, those battling the Zulus are also from the East African Kingdom. Putting it all together, the East Africans may have mobilized twenty or thirty thousand soldiers this time."
After hearing his subordinate's report, Henry Barkly, Governor of the Cape Colony, said gravely, "From what I know, this East African Kingdom is located in the Tanganyika region north of Portuguese Mozambique, controlling part of the Zanzibar Sultanate and some inland territory. But it appears we've understood far too little about them."
Henry Barkly walked over to a rather rough map of Africa. "Look here: Tanganyika's here, Mozambique is here. The East African Kingdom's army apparently moved from inland areas into South Africa, meaning they circumvented Mozambique. They must hold quite a large piece of the interior to march all the way south by land from East Africa."
The Cape Colony's "overview map" of Africa was crude—a rough outline of Africa's shores and coastline with the center basically blank. Under normal historical circumstances, this era would see many European explorers go deep into Africa, charting its rivers and mountains to fill that big empty center. But this process was interrupted by the East African Kingdom.
From the start, East Africa prohibited any European explorers from venturing in; as for those daring souls who tried, East Africa would "grant their wishes" by letting them "disappear." After all, Africa is dangerous—a few "accidents" are never surprising.
So the map Barkly held offered no real help. It only hinted that East Africa must control much of the territory bordering Mozambique.
Though Barkly didn't know how far East Africa had expanded or the means by which they conquered, he did know how lengthy Mozambique is. Its coastline is about 2,600 kilometers, so for East Africa to have bypassed Mozambique to reach South Africa presumably took a similar distance.
But Barkly personally suspected the East African Kingdom used waterways from north to south, letting the Germans swiftly move armies and supplies. He simply did not believe they could have rapidly expanded to South Africa on foot from their coastal areas in East Africa.
"It's likely there's a north-south river channel somewhere in East Africa they can use for shipping and for quick military deployments and logistics," Barkly reasoned. "Otherwise, I find it hard to believe they could expand so fast from the East African coast to here."
He's not entirely wrong; indeed, East Africa does have one river that partly matches his guess: the Luangwa River. But the Luangwa is only a tributary of the Zambezi, so it can at most lead to the Zambezi, not directly into South Africa. East Africa does run shipping on the Luangwa, but the water route isn't continuous—there are several disconnected segments.
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