Chapter 472: Preparing for War
In 1877, East Africa's primary military objective was to increase security investment in the South African region. Among East Africa's neighbors, only the Cape Colony had the capability to launch a large-scale modern war with forces exceeding ten thousand troops.
Especially after the Cape Colony annexed the Orange Free State, Britain gained access to a strong pool of Boer manpower—particularly those formerly from the Transvaal Republic. With sufficient funding and weaponry, Britain could easily raise an army of over ten thousand in the Orange Free State territory.
East Africa quietly increased its troop presence in South Africa to around 50,000. After the last war and the Eastern Africa Agreement, East Africa had reduced its border troops. This time, East Africa deployed three divisions centered on New Hamburg Port, Windhoek, and Sessen (former Griqualand), and also positioned one elite division and two cavalry divisions within the Hechingen Province (former Transvaal Republic).
Along the Orange and Tugela Rivers, East Africa reinforced its military outposts, constructing over 200 European-style fortresses throughout the South African region.
"We must prepare for long-term warfare. All military outposts must stock grain, water, and ammunition. Conduct detailed surveys of the surrounding terrain and maintain good coordination with other combat units," Ernst instructed senior army officers.
"Your Highness, do you really think the Cape Colony would dare attack us?"
Ernst replied, "It's possible. The choice isn't ours to make. I have no designs on the Cape—but I don't know whether the British have designs on us."
"But aside from Cape Town and Natal, there's not much of value in South Africa. The climate isn't even that favorable. Would Britain really go to war over such poor land?"
"That depends on how you define value. Is South Africa worse than Australia or Canada? Britain colonized deserts in Australia and frozen forests in Canada. Compared to that, South Africa's lush pastures are still attractive."
Of course, Ernst's comparison wasn't entirely fair. In Australia and Canada, Britain had only developed the most habitable regions. The deserts and ice fields were just bonus land—no need to defend them, so there was no cost. Yell loudly and the land was yours. Even a fool would take such a deal.
"Moreover, South Africa has strategic value. Cape Town's importance to Britain hasn't changed with the Suez Canal opening. It remains a vital strategic foothold. Any force threatening Cape Town will be taken seriously—if not by London, certainly by the colony itself."
Britain's four major colonies—India, Canada, Australia, and Cape Colony—had certain degrees of autonomy. British settlers in those places had their own interests and actively promoted expansion to boost their power and wealth. Just look at the Indian colony, which constantly stirred trouble in Asia.
East Africa's very existence posed a threat to Cape Colony. And now, East Africa also threatened Egypt and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Ernst didn't believe Britain would ignore East Africa—it was just a matter of when. All East Africa could do was prepare.
That said, war was still uncertain. Would Britain act directly? If so, would it be a small war or a large one? Where would it start? How long would it last? None of these were known.
Thus, East Africa's mobilization was limited. Ernst's goal was to ensure that if Cape launched a surprise attack, East Africa could first stabilize the front and then wear Britain down through a prolonged conflict.
No country in this era could afford a total break with Britain. Even the U.S.—huge, industrialized, and separated by an ocean—still played second fiddle to Britain and France.
If Ernst were to truly challenge Britain, it would require intervention from Germany and Austria-Hungary. But even that wouldn't be enough for a global war. A third great power would need to join.
East Africa's territory might be vast, but compared to the great powers, it was still relatively small—perhaps equal to two Belgiums.
"If war comes, our strategy must avoid both extremes. We must neither overextend nor shrink back. Turn a short war into a long one—drain enemy strength while raising our international standing."
Status on the global stage must be earned. Sure, friendship could win respect, but in the face of national interest, sentiment was meaningless. People will betray family for profit—only power matters. Even if their words are tough, their actions will betray fear.
In Ernst's previous life, the Boers exposed British weakness through the Boer Wars. Though Britain later proved its resilience by crushing German ambitions in Europe, it lost its status as global hegemon in the process.
"If war is inevitable, I hope it starts in South Africa. A prolonged war there won't faze us."
South Africa was rich in resources, but had little industrial or agricultural development. It was practically a blank slate. Turning it into a battlefield didn't worry Ernst—there were few civilians to protect.
As long as East Africa held South Africa, it could use the Central Railway to funnel supplies and manpower from the rear endlessly.
In theory, East Africa could go all-in and raise a million-strong army to crush Cape Colony. But that didn't align with Ernst's strategy. It would cost too much and delay East Africa's development. More importantly, it wouldn't drain Britain's strength. If it scared Britain into shifting the fight to the seas, East Africa would be at a disadvantage.
Ernst wanted to give Britain the illusion that it could win. Let Parliament believe that with just a bit more funding, victory was near. Let them burn through their budget slowly.
Meanwhile, East Africa could use the conflict to test and train its army. Ernst had always doubted its actual combat ability. The army had only fought easy battles—never against a real opponent.
Britain would be a good trial run. If East Africa faced Germany, France, Russia, or Austria, it would need full mobilization. But Britain's army—strong yet not overwhelming—was the perfect whetstone.
Also, war could boost the economy. Wartime production would test East Africa's industrial system and especially its military industry.
Of course, Ernst wasn't a warmonger. If war could be avoided, great. Peaceful development was ideal. Given enough time, East Africa's land and population would naturally turn it into a global power. But East Africa was already entangled in global power struggles. It had no choice.
Ernst concluded: "If others don't offend me, I won't offend them. But if they do, I'll strike back. We have no hostility toward Britain (yeah, right), but if war breaks out, the advantage will be ours."
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