Chapter 474: Discussion
Leiford's pessimism ultimately boiled down to money. The mainland only knew how to siphon from Mozambique, so there was no way Mozambique could invest in local development the way East Africa did. And with no money, Portugal couldn't provide any other effective support to lower colonial costs—cutting off both routes of relief.
East Africa's naval exercises gave Mozambique's new governor a rude awakening. In contrast, Britain's Natal Colony responded to the drills with little more than "Noted"—a rather indifferent attitude.
Indeed, the East African Navy posed a certain threat, but the British weren't worried. In 1877, the Royal Navy had nearly 180 main warships. Compared to that, East Africa's navy was an ant before a giant.
Still, in the western Indian Ocean, the "ant" could be threatening. The Royal Navy had global responsibilities—it couldn't just concentrate its strength in one region to crush a single opponent.
"What are the Germans trying to do? Intimidate us? If they dared to pull this off in India, Cape Town, or the Red Sea, I'd be impressed. But exercises in Natal? They're flattering us too much. Even if they tried this in Cape Colony, they'd learn what the world's top navy really looks like."
In truth, Natal was just a small colony centered around Durban. It was nothing compared to a major colony like Cape Town. So in the eyes of the Natal governor, East Africa's actions seemed ridiculous—like someone threatening a man by scaring his children at home.
East Africa's intentions went beyond flexing muscles. They wanted to signal that they weren't like other African states. Colonizers weren't fools—they assessed their targets. Picking the wrong fight could be disastrous. Such misjudgments were common in global history.
The navy was East Africa's best tool to demonstrate its national organization and state of readiness. A well-developed navy suggested a strong government—a hallmark of a difficult-to-colonize country.
As for the army, East Africa wisely kept it out of the spotlight. While the army could be considered mid-tier by European standards, it wasn't much weaker than the great powers. But if it spooked nearby powers, it might backfire.
In general, the naval drills served their purpose. They showed the British that East Africa had a competent-looking fleet. Colonizing East Africa without serious resources would be nearly impossible. But what truly concerned the British was—whose side was East Africa on?
After more than six months of investigation, Disraeli finally had a clear picture. The British government now had a reasonably accurate estimate of East Africa's territory.
"From the Somali Desert in the northeast to the Namib Desert in southwest Africa, we can draw a diagonal across the continent through the equator. That diagonal marks East Africa's territory. Add in Portuguese Angola and Mozambique on either side, and you can see East Africa's domain is diagonal. Based on this, we estimate East Africa's land area at around 7 million square kilometers. My God—just the number is frightening. There aren't many countries larger than that."
Disraeli: "A large area doesn't mean it's useful. Think of Australia's deserts, Canada's icy wilderness, or Brazil's rainforests. What matters is usable land. So what's East Africa's effective land area?"
"Prime Minister, that's hard to assess. But we know most of southwest Africa is worthless desert. The northeast is also largely desert. Together, those two areas alone cover about 2 million square kilometers. There's likely rainforest too, though we can't say how much. But one thing is clear: Africa won't be developed overnight. It'll take a century or more—if it ever happens."
"That's not the right way to think about it. The Americas struggled because they lacked manpower—hence centuries of slave trading. But Africa is the slave source. What if East Africans use Africans to develop Africa?"
"Wishful thinking. If Africans were that capable, the Germans wouldn't have gotten this far. You should talk to more Black people, Prime Minister. I'm certain that—exceptions aside—most of them are astoundingly incompetent. They fail at everything and can't be trusted like machines. At least machines don't rebel. Africans do. I believe East Africa's natives are the same—they might revolt like the Native Americans did."
You could call Native Americans weak, but they had strong resistance instincts. Unfortunately, they lacked a central force to unite against the colonial invaders. The U.S. needed over a hundred years to wipe them out. If East Africa wants to expand, they'll face similar opposition from Black Africans.
But what they failed to realize was that East Africa didn't have that many Black people—or rather, it had so many Germans that the Black population was no longer dominant. Resistance had been broken. In East Africa, Blacks were relegated to a servile class—non-marketable slaves, essentially.
Of course, sheer landmass doesn't determine national power—especially in immigrant states. Brazil and Argentina had excellent natural conditions but still fell apart. Disraeli's government didn't believe East Africa had greater potential than the American states.
As for America? Sure, it might be a "chosen land," but even it took a century to become a great power. East Africa couldn't follow the same path.
So East Africa didn't warrant too much attention—unless it had support from Germany or Austria-Hungary. Disraeli simply didn't believe they weren't involved.
"The Hechingen royal family and the Prussian royal family both come from the Hohenzollerns. They're very close—just like the Sigmaringen branch in Romania. I even suspect the Hohenzollerns are building a web of allied states through family ties. So East Africa must be aligned with Germany."
"Malthus, that theory doesn't hold up. Our intelligence shows East Africa is clearly closer to Austria-Hungary. Especially after the alliance treaty. That means they've sided with Austria, not Germany. Economically, too—their top trading partner is Austria. Just look at their merchant ship destinations."
Disraeli concluded: "East Africa is a unique case. Perhaps it's not a colony of Germany or Austria at all—that's not impossible."
Previously, Britain thought East Africa was a Prussian project—after all, the Hohenzollern name said a lot. But East Africa's recent actions suggest it is much closer to Austria-Hungary.
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