Chapter 485: War Simulation
While training the Black corps, East African army commanders were also analyzing Mozambique's strategic intentions.
Ahlmann said, "Based on our intelligence, Mozambique's forces are currently concentrated in the south, with large numbers of Black troops under training. Though we don't have exact figures, there are at least 30,000—over 10,000 in Maputo alone."
Swiweit added, "We can estimate Mozambique's maximum mobilization capacity. Using the density of our own native populations as a reference, Mozambique should have a population of over two million. It's possible for Portugal to raise an army of several hundred thousand, but realistically they lack the resources, especially when it comes to weapons and equipment. If cornered, they might field over 100,000, especially with British and French help. A force of tens of thousands of relatively well-equipped Black troops could be formed, though their combat effectiveness would be questionable. Portugal might be able to muster a few thousand white troops of their own."
Felix said, "Mozambique borders East Africa on three sides, giving them three possible directions of attack: the Southern Frontier Province, Matabeleland Province, and the northern line around Lake Malawi and the Ruvuma River. If we assume they can mobilize 50,000 troops, they could only mount an offensive in one of those directions."
Swiweit responded, "Our defenses along the Ruvuma River are strong. For over a decade, both sides have treated the river as an informal border, and we've heavily fortified it. If Mozambique sends its Black troops there, it would be a foolish move."
Merk countered, "I disagree. Our Ruvuma River defense relies heavily on riverine units, and their actual capability is limited. Midstream and upstream areas aren't adequately covered, and the river doesn't even fully reach Lake Malawi in the west—there's a large gap."
Swiweit replied, "But the Portuguese are at an even bigger disadvantage along the Ruvuma. They've barely developed the southern bank, and they lack proper support. They might not even be able to muster enough boats to cross, unless they hastily construct a temporary fleet."
Ahlmann asked, "What about the likelihood of attacks on the Southern Frontier and Hechingen Provinces?"
"Highly likely. Both are too close to Maputo. I believe the Portuguese see them as primary threats."
"Hechingen Province is protected by the Drakensberg Mountains, giving us a strong natural defense. Portugal likely won't focus there. We should reinforce the Northern line of the Southern Frontier Province. Our main defenses there have focused on the Tugela River to deter the British. The Northern line hasn't been prioritized."
"If the Portuguese attack the Southern Frontier, they'll have to come down along the coastal plain. That area is narrow. A single brigade should be enough to defend. Our strategic goal shouldn't be to capture Maputo immediately. If we do, the Portuguese might surrender outright. So the Northern line should remain defensive."
...
While East Africa was developing its anti-Portugal strategy, Britain and France were helping Portugal plan. But unlike East Africa's calm confidence, British and French officers were frustrated.
"Mozambique's geography is terrible for defense. It's vulnerable in the center—light in the middle, heavy at the ends. It could easily be cut in half. Whether that happens depends on East Africa's inland strength and how they've deployed their troops."
"East Africa's forces are concentrated in two areas—north and south. The troops north of the Ruvuma River are the strongest, followed by those in the south. East Africa also maintains a solid military presence in South Africa due to their fear of British expansion," boasted British instructor Johnson.
This assessment was accurate. The area north of the Ruvuma was East Africa's core territory, and they had heavily militarized the south to prevent British incursions.
Johnson added, "So even though East Africa has a large army, they're stretched thin. We've already tied up at least 50% of their forces. If Portugal weren't so useless, East Africa wouldn't have expanded this far."
The French instructor sneered at the smug Brit. Still, he couldn't deny Portugal's incompetence. After centuries in Africa, Portugal had survived solely on legacy holdings—only to be pushed around by upstart Germans. It was shameful.
But that was easy to say from the sidelines. If Portugal really had the power to dominate Africa, then today, Britain, France, and Germany would probably be teaming up against Portugal instead.
As for why Portugal made little progress in Africa—well, that wasn't entirely the fault of the colonial governments. Portugal's golden child used to be Brazil, and most of its investments went there. Who could've predicted Brazil would declare independence?
Without Brazil, the Portuguese government fell into chaos and was consumed by internal struggles, leaving little energy for external affairs. This self-inflicted damage severely weakened Portugal's ability to maintain its remaining colonies, and the aftermath of Brazil's independence made Lisbon even more hesitant to invest in its overseas territories—what if it all went to waste again?
In contrast to East Africa, which treated its colonies as core territory and poured in resources without concern for costs, Mozambique and Angola stagnated. Their development was shackled from the start as Lisbon continued extracting resources, all while its domestic economy suffered. Even the landowning elite had run out of surplus grain.
"So in these two areas, I think we can only go on the defensive in the north. Our real goal is to weaken and dismember East Africa. Wiping them out entirely isn't realistic. We should focus our offensive on the south," Johnson said.
Part of his reasoning was to use the Portuguese to exhaust East Africa's forces in the south—after all, Cape Town was still watching eagerly from the sidelines.
The French officer, Clément, saw through Johnson's motives and responded, "You've already said it yourself—East Africa has heavily invested militarily in the south. It's not wise to have Portugal focus its offensive there."
Mozambique's governor, Leiford, agreed: "Colonel Clément makes a good point. The East Africans are numerous. If we concentrate our military strength solely in the south, it may backfire. We shouldn't put all our eggs in one basket."
Indeed, the existence of the Southern Frontier Province posed a real threat to Maputo. But if Portugal eliminated this threat, they'd be neighbors with the British instead—which was arguably worse. As the British themselves claimed, they were tying up East Africa's energy. Leaving the East Africans there actually benefited Portugal.
This was a classic dilemma. Both choices had pros and cons. But in Leiford's view, the British threat outweighed East Africa's. Against East Africa, Portugal could still use Britain and France for balance. But who could balance against Britain? France? They might just sell Portugal out for concessions elsewhere—like in West Africa.
Though East Africa clearly posed an immediate threat, the truth was, they had never committed any serious transgressions against Mozambique. Britain, on the other hand, had a record.
East Africa's biggest mistake was growing too powerful too quickly—it frightened the Portuguese. Britain and France reassured Portugal that even if it lost the war, East Africa wouldn't be allowed to annex Mozambique and Angola. If East Africa refused to negotiate, the two powers would jointly pressure them. This guarantee was what gave Portugal the confidence to risk everything.
If Mozambique won, it would be a huge gain. Angola and Mozambique could be linked, rivaling their old Brazilian colony. If they lost, they'd still keep their colonies.
Johnson, frustrated that his strategy was being rejected, snapped, "Then what do you suggest?"
Clément said, "I propose we go on the defensive in both the north and south. Focus especially on defending Maputo. Although it's close to East Africa's southern colonies, taking Maputo is virtually impossible. I'd say it's one of the best-fortified areas in all of Africa. Without heavy weapons and massive troops, East Africa can't breach it."
This wasn't just French flattery—Maputo truly was one of Sub-Saharan Africa's toughest fortresses. Only the century-old city of Cape Town could rival it.
"But what if East Africa attacks by sea? Their navy is formidable—they've practically bought an entire fleet from the Austrians."
"Then our navies must cooperate. No matter how strong East Africa's navy is, it can't match the combined might of Britain and France. We'll issue a military ultimatum forbidding any naval interference in the eastern Indian Ocean during the war."
In other words, Britain and France planned to tie one of East Africa's hands behind its back. And they had the clout to do so—East Africa's navy couldn't stand up to the world's two strongest navies.
Clément added, "Our offensive should target the central region—the belly of East Africa. Mozambique is weak there, and so is East Africa. Let's pin down their main forces in the north and south, then swiftly cut the country in half. If Angola and Mozambique meet in the center, South and Southwest Africa become isolated. That drastically reduces East Africa's threat."
If Clément's plan worked, East Africa would lose the central region of Zimbabwe and Zambia. Cut off from the rest of the country, the south and southwest would become sitting ducks. East Africa could regress ten years overnight.
But this was merely wishful thinking. The British, French, and Portuguese all underestimated East Africa's true military strength. They also overlooked a key asset—its railway system. During the Franco-Prussian War, France had lost in part due to Prussia's superior rail logistics. Yet here they were again, ignoring the fact that East Africa had a central railway artery that could shift forces to any vulnerable front at a moment's notice.
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