"So! Sunagakure has only one target—and only one target—and that is Konoha!"
Shinichi's analysis continued. As he thoroughly broke down the logic behind Sunagakure's inevitable decision to go to war and its inevitable choice of Konoha as the target, many of the ninja in the conference room showed expressions of sudden realization, as if the clouds had parted to reveal the sun.
It was too precise—too in-depth.
Starting from the rigid necessity of consolidating power, the concrete figures behind economic pressure, the objective constraints of geography, and even the universal tendencies of human nature, he had constructed an unassailable chain of cause and effect.
Listening to the calm exposition of the boy on stage, the faint hopes of "maybe" or "not necessarily" that lingered in many hearts were completely extinguished, replaced by a cold and crystal-clear consensus.
If Sunagakure did not go to war with Konoha, that would be what truly violated its own logic of action and survival.
"However, I must make one thing absolutely clear."
Shinichi paused at the right moment, giving them a brief window to process. Then his tone shifted, his voice carrying clearly to every corner of the room: "Once Sunagakure makes its move, this will not be an isolated border conflict between two nations."
"It will inevitably ignite a full-scale war across the entire shinobi world."
"The fuse of the Third Shinobi World War will be completely lit by this seemingly desperate strike from Sunagakure."
Below the stage, the air seemed to freeze. Even the sound of breathing grew faint.
Shinichi turned, extending his arm, his finger landing firmly on the northeastern region of the map.
"Kumogakure."
"The Third Raikage—fierce, domineering, a firm believer in preemptive strikes and the supremacy of strength. The Land of Lightning is wholly martial, its people fierce by nature, and they have long coveted the fertile lands and abundant resources of the Land of Fire."
"Once Sunagakure launches war against Konoha, the Third Raikage will never miss the chance to exploit the chaos. He will inevitably follow immediately, leading Kumogakure's elite forces in a full-scale assault from the northeastern border—seeking to tear open a breach, drive deep into our territory, and divide and plunder the lands of the Land of Fire."
"And the timing…" Shinichi paused briefly, then declared decisively, "Within one month! I can state this clearly to all of you—my colleagues, my seniors—the window in which Kumogakure will declare war on Konoha will definitely fall within one month after Sunagakure's attack, perhaps even sooner!"
Within one month.
At those words, many ninja in the audience drew sharp breaths. They had assumed Sunagakure would be the immediate threat, while Kumogakure might wait and observe longer.
But Shinichi's prediction—so precise as to narrow it down to a single month—dragged the urgency and brutality of war directly into view.
"Iwagakure."
Without giving them time to react, Shinichi's finger moved again, landing on the northwestern region of the map.
"The Third Tsuchikage, Ōnoki—having lived through two great wars—is shrewd and calculating, most skilled at judging the situation and reaping the benefits like a fisherman."
"He will not enter the battlefield rashly in the early stages. Instead, he will remain in the Land of Earth, observing the course of the war, waiting for the optimal moment to intervene."
"His actions will depend entirely on how the situation unfolds."
"If Konoha shows weakness in the early stages—pressed by Sunagakure and Kumogakure from two sides, with defensive lines repeatedly in crisis—Ōnoki will certainly choose to attack Konoha, forming a three-nation encirclement with Sunagakure and Kumogakure, jointly weakening the strongest nation in the shinobi world and dividing the fertile lands of the Land of Fire."
"If Konoha demonstrates strong resilience—holding its ground in a two-front war, even beginning to organize counterattacks—then Ōnoki will turn his blade toward Kumogakure, forming a tacit understanding with Konoha to weaken their long-standing rival for northern dominance."
"There is even a third possibility. If Ōnoki judges that the war will devolve into prolonged attrition, he may first devour the relatively weaker Sunagakure, seize key strategic points in the Land of Wind, then sit back and watch as Konoha and Kumogakure exhaust each other—only to step in at the end and claim the entire outcome."
"All three possibilities exist simultaneously. But the core logic is only one."
"To achieve the greatest gain at the lowest cost."
"Iwagakure's entry into the war is only a matter of time."
Silence filled the room. The ninja from the Nara clan, in particular, had complex expressions flickering in their eyes.
Shinichi's finger moved again, landing on the southeastern portion of the map—the vast ocean.
"Kirigakure."
"Surrounded by sea on all sides, facing the Land of Fire across the ocean."
"Internal power struggles are already brewing beneath the surface. They are currently in a sensitive and chaotic transitional period, making it unlikely that they will launch large-scale landing operations in the early stage of the war—but they will never miss the chance to fish in troubled waters."
"At that time, they will inevitably harass our coastal ports from the sea, cut off supply lines, and tie down our defensive forces in the southeast. Depending on how the war evolves, they may even escalate into large-scale landings, secretly coordinating with Iwagakure, Kumogakure, and Sunagakure to form a four-directional encirclement from the southeast."
"Therefore, my final conclusion is this!"
Shinichi's gaze swept across the entire hall as he spoke each word with emphasis: "Sunagakure's full-scale war against Konoha is an inevitable outcome that will occur within one month—if anything, counting from now, it may be less than a month."
"And once the war begins, Kumogakure will strike from the northeast, Iwagakure will wait for its moment to cut in from the central front, and Kirigakure will harass and contain us from the sea."
"In the early stages, the Land of Fire—Konoha—will inevitably face the joint assault of two great nations, and depending on how the situation develops, this may escalate into a four-front war."
"The curtain of a full-scale war across the shinobi world is about to rise."
"Konoha has no path of retreat."
The entire hall fell into absolute silence.
Three thousand people sat there, staring at the boy standing on the stage.
Light poured down from above, enveloping his figure in brilliance.
Seated in the front row, the Third Hokage's expression remained unchanged, but his heart sank slightly. A bold, even somewhat desperate thought flickered uncontrollably through his mind.
What if… we gather overwhelming force and, with thunderous momentum, completely crush Sunagakure within a month—then redeploy immediately to deal with the inevitable attack from Kumogakure?
But the moment the idea surfaced, he dismissed it himself.
Impossible!
The vast deserts of the Land of Wind formed a natural barrier. Sunagakure's ninja excelled in that environment. If Konoha's forces advanced deep inside, stretched supply lines and environmental adaptation would be immediate obstacles.
Sunagakure might rank lower among the Five Great Nations, but as a long-established village, its war potential and resilience could not be underestimated.
To achieve a decisive victory within a month and force Sunagakure out of the war?
That would require committing an astronomical amount of Konoha's forces—led by multiple top-tier elites—in an all-out offensive regardless of cost.
And once Konoha committed the bulk of its elite and main forces to the western front, engaging Sunagakure in a decisive clash, the northeastern defenses would be left dangerously exposed.
Given the Third Raikage's personality and Kumogakure's efficiency, they would never wait a full month. The moment war ignited in the west, Kumogakure's blade would already be at the throat of the northeastern front.
At that point, Konoha would be forced into simultaneous decisive battles on both fronts—its forces completely stretched and divided.
Even worse was the chain reaction. If Konoha showed signs of strain on both fronts, the previously observing Ōnoki would no longer remain passive.
He would seize this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and strike a fatal blow from the northwest.
Even Kirigakure, watching from across the sea, might directly launch a large-scale landing.
At that point, it would no longer be a two-front war—but war on all sides.
So, no.
The option of quickly resolving Sunagakure—seemingly proactive—would, in reality, risk dragging Konoha into an abyss beyond recovery.
That left only one answer.
Delay!
The core strategy must be to delay and stabilize.
On the western front, they must withstand Sunagakure's initial fierce offensive, drag the conflict into attrition, and use the Land of Fire's superior resources and logistics to gradually wear down Sunagakure's momentum—without seeking a decisive battle in the short term.
The true critical battle—and counteroffensive focus—must be on resisting Kumogakure's assault. The northeastern front must be reinforced with sufficient mobile forces and top-tier elites, striving to hold the line during their most ferocious first wave—and, if possible, deal them a heavy blow, shattering their illusion of a swift victory.
And all of this served an even deeper purpose.
To send a clear signal to the old fox watching from the northwest: Konoha might be under pressure, but it was far from easy prey—it still had the resilience to fight on two fronts.
To tip Ōnoki's calculations—away from attacking Konoha or sitting back to reap the benefits—and toward targeting Kumogakure or crushing the weaker Sunagakure first.
It was difficult.
Every step walked the edge of a cliff. It required precise calculation, strong execution, and no small amount of luck.
But this was the only seemingly viable path.
With that thought, the Third Hokage came back to himself. Seeing the entire hall in heavy silence, he raised his hand—but at that moment…
Clap, clap, clap.
Applause rang out.
From the same spot.
From the same person.
Shimura Danzō stood up.
He stood there, clapping slowly, his expression still cold and unreadable. Yet he had risen—he was the first among the three thousand present to stand.
The Third Hokage's smile stiffened for a moment, his hands pausing midair.
He looked at Danzō's back, at his old comrade standing upright, and felt a complex emotion he could not quite describe.
What are you trying to do?
But it lasted only a moment. The Third Hokage also stood, facing the boy on the stage, and began to applaud—his movements still composed, his smile still gentle.
As he rose, it spread like a tide. Everyone stood.
Three thousand people—all rising to their feet. The applause surged like a roaring sea, shaking the entire conference hall.
Shinichi stood on the stage, bowing slightly in all directions in acknowledgment.
The applause lasted a long time. When it finally began to subside, people quietly filed out, their expressions solemn. No one spoke. No one exchanged words. They simply walked toward the exit in silence.
As many of them left, their eyes would unconsciously sweep over the figure of the boy on the stage, filled with complex emotions.
As if they were seeing him anew—the brightest rising star of Konoha in recent years, the youngest Special Jōnin in its history.
He was only ten years old, yet he could untangle the complex dynamics of the shinobi world and the logic of war with such clarity.
Even before the first spark of battle had ignited, he had already dissected the motives and actions of every major force, leaving no room for doubt.
The civilians of Konoha knew nothing of what had transpired in the building that day. They only saw familiar ninja walking out of the Hokage Building one after another, each with the same grave expression—so grave it unsettled the heart.
That evening, a notice was posted throughout the streets of Konoha.
The Third Hokage, Sarutobi Hiruzen, along with the three advisory elders, would deliver an important address at noon three days later from the Hokage Building's high platform.
Brief. Formal. No explanations.
But everyone knew—something big was coming.
Time returned to that moment.
After finishing his speech, Shinichi bowed slightly amid the roaring applause, then turned and walked toward the passage at the side of the stage.
The applause still echoed behind him as he passed through the door into the quieter backstage area. The lighting dimmed slightly, and the soundproof door blocked out most of the noise.
At that moment, a staff member in uniform quickly approached.
"Shinichi-kun, please wait."
Shinichi stopped and looked at him.
The staff member bowed slightly and handed over a document. "This is a joint notice from the Hokage and the three advisory elders."
Shinichi took the document and opened it. It was simple.
Three days later, the Hokage would deliver an important address to the entire village. The three advisory elders would also take the stage in turn.
But there was one line at the end that made him pause slightly.
"Additionally: Elder Danzō has recently been unwell and, per medical advice, is to rest and avoid prolonged standing in public. By Elder Danzō's own designation, Special Jōnin Higashino Shinichi will speak on his behalf."
Shinichi's gaze lingered on that line.
Danzō?
Appointing him?
To speak on his behalf?
What is that old schemer up to now?
Shinichi remained silent for a moment, then folded the document and tucked it into his clothing.
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