"Morals are declining day by day." Ser Lucas admitted after a long pause.
The political strife in Westeros was accelerating, becoming increasingly bloody and dark.
In the past, the high lords observed a certain level of restraint, even masking their wars with etiquette.
During the Dance of the Dragons, despite the fierce fighting, everyone mostly went back to their respective homes, and the lords were generally safe.
After the Blackfyre Rebellions, the Iron Throne increased the severity of its punishments.
Blackfyre supporters were typically second-tier high lords or mid-to-small lords, such as Houses Bracken, Peake, Butterwell, and Lothston; the greater paramount lords usually remained unscathed.
House Lothston chose to backstab the Blackfyres during the war.
The ones punished most severely were the Peakes and the Butterwells, while the Brackens and Yronwoods remained alive and kicking.
But by Tywin's time, it had evolved into the bloodbath of the Reynes and Tarbecks, the vengeance against the Targaryens and Martells. Even the top twenty great lords were no longer safe.
"Some will be pessimistic, some will be optimistic. Warriors and politicians need coldness and a view of the big picture. Ser, you must know of the Battle of the Red Fork—that was a battle between the Trout and the Lion..." Arthur placed his palm on the location of the Red Fork on the map.
Ser Lucas nodded. "I know. Lord Jason of the Greens led eight thousand men attempting to cross the Red Fork. Three times he failed, and he even died in the crossing battle."
"That was a war over a hundred years ago. Now, the Westerlands can field far more troops and cavalry than back then. With the destruction of Houses Reyne and Tarbeck, Tywin has been constantly expanding his military strength and buying horses. He can't just be watching the show forever."
Times had changed. The strength of the Westerlands had increased significantly, not to mention the Reach.
The Westerlands relied on centralization, while the Reach relied on marriage alliances.
Of course, the fundamental condition was the long peace of the Seven Kingdoms; the population recovery in the green lands was faster than in Dorne or the North.
The Riverlands, however, were now fragmented and disunited. The western Riverlands laughed at the royalists in the eastern Riverlands, mocking their weakness.
What was more fatal was the lack of excellent leaders like the Kermit Tully brothers, Lady Sabitha Frey, Black Aly, Red Robb, and Bloody Ben.
"Tywin wouldn't go mad, would he? Hoster, Stark, and Arryn aren't so senile, and there's King Robert," Ser Lucas pondered.
He was increasingly believing in Arthur's perspective.
A cruel man, an arrogant man, a petty man.
It was normal to be cautious and guarded against a Tywin like that.
Those skilled in war plan the layout first; one cannot pin one's hopes on others.
"Everything changes, Ser. Just like Rhaegar's actions—are these great figures absolutely rational? No, it is their petty willfulness that accelerates history." Arthur laughed.
Joffrey was born, and the situation in Westeros was already racing forward.
According to the original story, the first person to go mad in the Riverlands wasn't Tywin, but Catelyn Tully.
"As a strategist praised by the Riverlords, can Hoster not walk out of the trap of the Riverlands? Will his disguise still be peeled off?" Ser Lucas looked at the location of Riverrun; war always meant suffering for the common folk.
Once past the Golden Tooth, Riverrun wasn't safe either; Riverrun was originally a defensive bulwark in the west.
Ser Lucas had to ponder this coldest, most icy game of power.
The Riverlands were scarred, with east and west looking out for themselves.
In extreme circumstances, support from the North and the Vale might not arrive in time.
If Tywin struck brazenly, the Riverlands would have almost no room to hide.
"Strategists grow old, too. Even if Hoster has a hundred schemes, he has two major flaws. These flaws will eventually be the death of him." Arthur revealed a gentle yet confident smile.
"The first I know: Hoster is too superstitious about the power of marriage alliances and peace, neglecting his own strength. What about the second?" Ser Lucas looked forward to the second answer.
"The second is that House Tully's power is too dispersed, and the quality of their personnel is uneven. Hoster was gravely wounded by the Griffin at the Battle of the Stoney Sept, damaging his spirit. His brother, the 'Blackfish,' was driven from home. And my cousin, Edmure—he has a good heart and is multi-talented, but he has no talent for war. Duke Hoster dotes on his youngest son and never sent Edmure out to be a squire or ward of another house. House Tully will realize they needed a Kermit, not an Edmure..." Arthur stated the second flaw.
Hoster's strategic misjudgment lay in his superstition regarding the power of peace and marriage, while finding it difficult to expand his own hard power.
"As you described, the Trout appears prominent for a time, but Duke Hoster has missed a crucial point; Tully is strong yet weak. You are not without opportunity." Ser Lucas's eyes lit up.
"Hoster has grown old; he is useless. The future depends on ourselves." Arthur's words were sharp as knives.
He valued Hoster, but he valued Tywin even more.
Optimists forget war, while pessimists prepare for it.
"I want security—the security to survive on the chessboard. Security, supreme security, security that transcends the fate of the Trident."
"Let's start with the soldiers," Ser Lucas mused.
Arthur spoke seriously. "Knights have five arts: swordsmanship, spearmanship, hammer/axe, archery, and horsemanship. Even if some use exotic weapons, they don't stray far from these five. Ser Lucas, in your opinion, which type of soldier should we develop first?"
Based on skills and equipment, soldiers could be divided into foot archers, infantry, lancers, horse archers, and further into light and heavy cavalry, light and heavy infantry.
"Why not start with longbowmen?" Ser Lucas Dayne said. "Cavalry requires spending money on armor and horses, which is a huge expense. Although the Vale has good horses, the Knights of the Vale love their horses like life itself; they rarely sell them. Relatively speaking, it's better to form longbowmen first."
Although House Dayne was Dorne nobility, they resided at Starfall, possessing their own port and fertile lands.
In addition to the unique Dorne light cavalry tactics of "harass" and "scorched earth," House Dayne retained many characteristics of knightly houses and was no stranger to hard-hitting heavy armored knights.
"Tywin is vigorously developing cavalry, not only raising horses in the Westerlands but also buying them from overseas," Ser Lucas sighed.
Regardless of Tywin's character, his centralization and military buildup had greatly enhanced the strength of the Westerlands.
"Castles will have ready-made blacksmiths and ironworks. But good horses are hard to come by," Arthur evaluated.
Cavalry and knights meant money and horse-breeding grounds.
Currently, the three strongest regions in Westeros—the Westerlands, the Reach, and the Vale—possessed large-scale cavalry units and held a numerical advantage.
Although the Riverlands also had cavalry, they were too fragmented.
And while others centralized and allied, the Riverlands marked time, which effectively meant a decline in military quality.
As for poorer regions like the North, the proportion of cavalry was very low.
When Robb marched south with nearly twenty thousand men, the ratio of infantry to cavalry was three to one, and the cavalry's numbers and equipment were visibly weaker than the Westerlands army.
Tywin's main force had an infantry-to-cavalry ratio of 1.6 to 1.
This was partly because the North marched south in haste, and the Ryswells, who controlled the horse lands, didn't put in their full effort, but it also illustrated the scarcity of Northern cavalry.
"So, Arthur, start with longbowmen. Don't forget House Blackwood; they are famous for their longbow corps and sharpshooters. Harrenhal can completely reference House Blackwood's experience." Ser Lucas emphasized. "Red Robb, Black Aly, Bloodraven—they were all world-renowned sharpshooters."
These were legendary figures of House Blackwood, constantly alive in the stories of the Trident people, and Arthur knew them well.
"Let Harrenhal muscle up; develop longbowmen first." Arthur looked at Ser Lucas and said.
Longbowmen needed not only Yew greatbows but also excellent training and good nutrition.
"Your enterprise begins here." Ser Lucas had discovered the difference between the two Arthurs.
The Sword of the Morning was the White Arthur, the light of chivalry.
And Arthur Whent was the Black Arthur; aside from outstanding knightly talent, he possessed a burning ambition for the world.
The White Arthur was dead, but the Black Arthur remained; this was a comforting thought for him.
"Let it begin with my courage at this moment. Will you help me? Ser..." Arthur poured a cup of Dornish Summer Red for Ser Lucas, the fine wine bright as blood.
"To greatness!" Ser Lucas raised his glass.
"To madness!" Arthur swirled his wine glass.
Perhaps every player in the game of power was a mad gambler.