Mexico was no match for the rapidly rising United States.
That was a fact agreed upon by nearly everyone in the country—whether they supported the war or opposed it.
From the very moment the United States had been founded, it had fought against the British Empire, the most powerful nation in the world.
More recently it had fought another war with Britain, and throughout the decades it had continuously gained real battlefield experience through campaigns against Native American tribes.
Mexico, on the other hand, was a different matter entirely.
Though it had won independence from Spain, the country had never truly stabilized.
Its government had changed several times in only a few decades.
The dictator Antonio López de Santa Anna, who had once been driven from power, had returned again to seize control.
His disastrous war with France had left the national treasury nearly empty.
To make matters worse, Mexico had been unable to reabsorb the Republic of Texas, which had declared independence.
If there was any silver lining, it was that Texas itself remained divided between factions that favored joining the United States and those who preferred remaining independent.
But everyone understood how that struggle would eventually end.
For Mexico, there was simply no favorable outlook.
President John Tyler, after reviewing intelligence reports and consulting with experts, was confident.
Once war began, the United States would annex Texas.
Then the army would advance west and south.
Once the Americans secured access to the Pacific Ocean, negotiations would follow.
Mexico would be forced to accept peace terms, transferring all conquered territory to the United States at a bargain price.
And if Mexico refused?
It hardly mattered.
With the British Empire participating in the war, Mexico would never be able to endure the pressure.
If Britain joined America in the conflict, the psychological effect alone would terrify Mexico.
Under those circumstances, the United States might even secure better terms than originally expected.
If Tyler could win such a war—
Even without the support of his own party—
Winning reelection would become almost inevitable.
Perhaps the Whig Party would even beg him to return.
But Tyler's pleasant fantasies did not last long.
"What do you mean the British intend to march down from Oregon?"
"Yes, Mr. President."
"Our ambassador reports that once the war begins, British forces plan to advance south along the Pacific coast."
"Do they even have the troops for such an operation?"
"Recently a large number of Canadian settlers have been moving into Oregon."
The advisor hesitated before continuing.
"This is speculation, of course—but it seems possible the British are flooding Oregon with settlers to strengthen their territorial claims against us."
Tyler frowned.
"That… is a plausible theory."
After reading the report from Kingston, Tyler began to suspect that his original plan—bringing Britain into the conflict—might prove a disastrous mistake.
I nearly forgot, he thought.
The Oregon dispute hasn't even been resolved yet.
The Oregon Territory had long been claimed by four nations:
Britain, the United States, Spain, and Russia.
Spain and Russia had eventually withdrawn their claims.
But the United States and Britain remained locked in a fierce dispute.
Britain demanded the 49th parallel as the border.
That would give them everything down to Mexico.
The United States, on the other hand, insisted on the 54°40′ line, claiming territory all the way to the boundary of Alaska.
As tensions escalated, the slogan "Fifty-Four Forty or Fight!" had begun spreading throughout America.
But Tyler knew that fighting another war against the British Empire over Oregon alone would be a terrible gamble.
And recently Russia had sold Alaska to Britain, strengthening British control over the Pacific.
That development had further weakened the American claim.
Worse still—
The United States had already given Britain enormous justification through the recent incident.
If America pushed too aggressively now, Britain might even side with Mexico.
"Wait," Tyler said suddenly.
"What if we simply concede Oregon to them?"
The room fell silent.
"We allow Britain to take Oregon."
"In exchange, we seize all of Mexico's western territory."
"We present it as an apology for the recent incident."
"If we agree to settle the Oregon dispute in Britain's favor while taking the rest of Mexico's land, they might not object."
"That would be ideal," an advisor replied cautiously.
"But the British likely believe Oregon already belongs to them."
"The settlers they're sending there make that clear."
Tyler sighed.
"If they provoke a war with us, it will be troublesome for them too…"
Then he paused.
"…No."
"They believe the calculations are already finished."
"We're tied down with Mexico, and they hold the moral high ground after the recent incident."
It was a petty strategy.
But undeniably effective.
What could he do?
Fighting a two-front war against Britain and Mexico was impossible.
There was only one option left.
"While Britain toys with Oregon," Tyler said firmly,
"We crush Mexico quickly."
"We advance west before they can move south."
"If we raise the American flag across the western territories first, Britain will have no room to advance."
Speed was the key.
The United States needed to mobilize immediately and strike hard.
Tyler made his decision.
He would ask Congress for a declaration of war.
Originally he had planned to wait for Mexico's response.
But Mexico would obviously deny the accusations.
There was no reason to waste time.
When the President's message reached Congress, the opposition—led by Abraham Lincoln—protested fiercely.
But the national mood already favored war.
The President's statement read:
"War exists, and despite the many efforts of the United States to avoid it, Mexico has chosen the worst possible course.
Mexico's scheme to destroy the friendly relations between the United States and the British Empire is nothing less than an act of aggression.
They must pay the price."
It was a blatant reversal of reality.
But declarations of war often were.
After intense debate, Congress passed the resolution by overwhelming margins.
Senate: 45 to 7House: 198 to 25
"Defend the United States from Mexican aggression!"
The slogan spread across the country like a dark comedy.
And so—
On November 13, 1842—
The United States formally declared war on Mexico.
The Mexican–American War had begun.
Washington, D.C.
Inside an elegant hotel in Washington.
James had returned to America and was finally meeting an old subordinate again.
"You've been well?"
"As busy as always," the man replied.
"But you must have been even busier than me, sir."
"Have you been keeping healthy?"
The man was Allan Pinkerton.
In truth, he had been selected as the unfortunate "frontman" who would suffer alongside James under Killian's relentless demands.
But he still looked energetic.
Youth had its advantages.
Five years earlier, James had possessed that same vitality.
"Thanks to your recommendation," Pinkerton said cheerfully,
"I've had the chance to serve His Highness directly."
"Every day has been incredibly exciting."
"Exciting?" James repeated.
"Yes."
"The work I'm doing now could determine the future of this continent."
"What man wouldn't want to play in waters this big at least once in his life?"
James nodded slowly.
"Well… I'm glad it suits you."
Enjoy it while it lasts, he thought.
Swimming in deep waters eventually exhausts even the strongest men.
Still—
If Pinkerton was so enthusiastic, James felt no guilt about handing him even more responsibilities.
After all, he was simply helping a young man fulfill his ambitions.
They entered the luxurious hotel room together.
The door closed.
Both men immediately dropped their smiles.
They sat across from one another at a large round table.
"As expected," Pinkerton said,
"Congress passed the war resolution by an overwhelming majority."
"Just as His Highness predicted."
James nodded.
"Then the rest will likely unfold as he anticipated."
"Yes," Pinkerton replied.
"That's why I rushed down here."
"His Highness predicted the United States would declare war immediately."
"What exactly is your assignment?" James asked.
"I was only told to assist you if necessary."
"Our missions are similar," Pinkerton said.
"But I'll focus on stirring anti-war sentiment in the North."
James sighed.
"If Mexico were even slightly more competent, we wouldn't have to work this hard."
Pinkerton gave a bitter smile.
"At first I thought simply leaking American troop movements would be enough."
"But apparently that won't slow them down."
James leaned back.
"Lack of power has always been a crime in international politics."
"If Mexico were a more formidable opponent, none of this would be happening."
The world was a jungle.
Weak nations were prey.
Mexico had done nothing in this crisis.
Yet it was the one being beaten.
But no one cared about the complaints of a deer standing beside a hungry lion.
"That's why His Highness wants Canada to become stronger than any nation on this continent," Pinkerton said.
"These Americans aren't normal."
"If they grow stronger, they'll eventually point their guns at Canada too."
"Perhaps," James said.
"But not everyone in this country is insane."
"If that were true, our work here would be pointless."
"That's true," Pinkerton admitted.
"You did say His Highness respects young politicians like Lincoln."
"But their influence is still tiny."
"Which is why we must help them gain influence."
Supporting Mexico directly was pointless.
That had been their leader's conclusion.
Mexico was a cracked vessel.
Pouring water into it would accomplish nothing.
So how could the war be prolonged?
The answer was surprisingly simple.
"The army marching to Mexico will mostly consist of Southern militias and state troops," Pinkerton said.
"The federal standing army barely numbers ten thousand men."
"Which means Southern security will be severely weakened," James said.
"Exactly."
"Preparations are already complete."
"What remains depends on how you act."
James nodded slowly.
"I expected the war to begin next year or the year after."
"So the schedule is tight."
"But everything is ready."
Even if he did nothing further, the South already contained a carefully organized network among the slaves.
Many of the Black men trained in Canada had returned south, determined to rescue their people.
If they all moved at once—
The South would descend into chaos.
Of course, simple escapes and riots would not be enough.
But they had another card.
"At the right moment," Pinkerton said,
"I will release evidence proving the slave hunters who invaded Canada never received Mexican money."
The truth would be revealed.
This war was an invasion planned by Southern politicians and a pro-slavery president.
Mexico had been framed.
Imagine the situation:
The war had already begun.
Slave revolts were erupting across the South.
And in the North—
The truth behind the war was exposed.
Could the United States still march triumphantly across the West under those conditions?
Only God knew the future.
But at that moment—
James felt as if he could already see it.