PLVS VLTRA. Further beyond.
El imperio donde nunca se pone el sol. The empire on which the sun never sets.
These were phrases that once symbolized the Spanish Empire, formerly the strongest power in Europe. Now, that title had completely passed to the British Empire, and Spain had become a byword for decline. Even so, as the saying goes, a rich man may fall but still lasts three years, and Spain, despite its decline, was still regarded as having a respectable navy. The problem was that it could not fully utilize that strength due to internal instability and natural disasters. At least, that was what many Spaniards believed.
[The Union's unreasonable demand to halt exports. Parliament declares firm rejection.]
[No one has the right to block legitimate trade. What is wrong with the North's claim?]
[There was a reason the South seceded. The North's coercive diplomacy.]
"…Yes, this is it. With public opinion like this, we can act."
Leopoldo O'Donnell, the Duke of Tetuan, read the newspaper headlines aloud with satisfaction. Though now Prime Minister, he had once been a general and remained a strong supporter of imperial policy. When Ambassador Córdoba first presented the plan, he approved it immediately without hesitation.
Spain had already profited from the Mexican War. Repeating the same strategy on a larger scale gave him no reason to refuse. As for the United States' outrage, if they truly intended to act, they would have done so already. According to his calculations, the Union would not turn its guns toward Spain until the war ended, and by then, it would be too exhausted to wage another conflict.
He laughed quietly, convinced that if things continued this way, extending his rule would be easy. In his view, domestic politics meant nothing without visible achievements. No matter how well the foundations were built, without clear results, power could not be maintained. What was needed was overwhelming success that would silence all opposition.
This war provided exactly that opportunity. Discussions about the economy or workers' lives had disappeared. Newspapers that once criticized the government now filled their pages with attacks on the North. The lines were clearly drawn. Whether slavery existed across the ocean did not matter to ordinary people. What mattered was that Spain was finally rising again, and the North was attempting to obstruct it.
In this narrative, the North became greedy capitalists and an oppressive force, while Spain was portrayed as a defender of free trade and justice. Whether that narrative held up to scrutiny did not matter. People naturally sided with their own.
"Prime Minister, Britain has agreed to sell us warships as promised."
"Good work. Now the question is how to transfer them to the South."
"Given the current situation, would it not be fine to sell them directly?"
"…Perhaps."
Relations with the United States had already deteriorated beyond repair. Trying to disguise actions now seemed unnecessary. What had originally been planned as a covert transfer for deniability might no longer be needed.
"It may be better to support the South openly rather than remain ambiguous."
"That makes sense. But we still need justification, if only for relations with other countries."
"The United States is already providing that justification. If they continue to act aggressively, they will create the pretext themselves."
"Ah, I see."
Reports from both the Interior Ministry and the embassy in London confirmed the same assessment. The time when Spain needed to be cautious was passing.
"What about Mexico?"
"They are fully supportive. As long as it harms the United States, they will cooperate."
It was an ironic situation. Spain and Mexico, once enemies, now found common cause. It only showed how deeply the United States had antagonized its neighbors.
"Good. Proceed as planned. At the same time, circulate reports on what the United States has done to neighboring countries and strengthen public support. There is no country in Europe willing to openly support the North."
It was a strange situation. The South upheld slavery, while the North opposed it, yet the balance of opinion had shifted. Somehow, the North stood isolated, while the South received sympathy. The reason did not matter. Spain only needed to take advantage.
As long as every day was like this, politics would remain enjoyable.
O'Donnell poured himself a glass of wine from Burgundy. He used to prefer strong whiskey, but recently this suited him better. He believed these favorable days would continue.
Unlike Wellesley, I remained a reliable husband and spent each day trying to ease Victoria's anger.
"…You are no longer angry, right?"
"You do know you were wrong?"
"I did not expect him to be this serious. I thought if I told him to convince you first, he would back down. I never thought he would push it that far."
"Yes, I understand. But you should have told me in advance."
At first, I had been surprised by Edward's sudden determination, but Victoria also understood that it might be the best course. Still, at its root, this situation existed because I had repeatedly gone to war myself.
"I will make sure he is never placed in danger. You can trust me."
"…After someone rushed into the war with Russia, how am I supposed to stop him now?"
"That was for you and our children…"
"I know. That is why I am only this angry."
Her anger had not fully faded. No mother would remain calm when her eldest son suddenly declared he would go to war like his father. Before it escalated again, I changed the topic.
"Edward seems to be under a lot of pressure."
"That is the burden of being the eldest son of a great father. Though Adelaide is causing trouble in her own way for the same reason."
"There is little we can do about Adelaide. But I think we should guide Edward more closely. Perhaps I should keep him by my side and teach him directly."
Edward showed promise. If guided properly, he could achieve great things. Of course, parents could never be fully objective. Still, keeping him close would certainly help.
Victoria seemed to agree.
"If you stay with him and guide him, his confidence will grow. That is not a bad idea."
"Exactly."
"But he is not going to war with you, is he?"
"Even if I wanted to, he would refuse. The problem is keeping him in a safe position. He is not foolish enough to accept that easily."
If I stayed with him, attention would shift to me. He would resist being placed in the rear. That was why proper training was necessary.
Fortunately, Edward eagerly accepted when I offered to teach him everything I knew.
"Edward, what do you think is the most important quality for someone who must stand at the top?"
"The ability to see the overall flow. The Prime Minister said no one surpasses you in that regard. I want to develop that ability."
"That is important. But there is something just as important."
This was something I had never told anyone before.
"In the broadest sense, everything in the world is connected to politics. Even this civil war. It could have been resolved politically, but deep-rooted economic and social structures made that impossible."
"So you already knew this would happen."
"If I did not, how could I prepare such plans? Now, let us assume future scenarios and discuss the appropriate strategy."
I spread out a large world map and placed chess pieces representing different nations. Edward's expression turned serious.
"Spain is supplying weapons, and France has recognized the South."
"Correct. What happens next?"
"The North will grow impatient. Spain will maintain its course, and France will likely intervene soon. If France joins, the balance shifts heavily toward the South."
That was the obvious conclusion. Seeing my expression, he continued.
"If France intervenes, we should deploy the navy and intervene as well. Then we can pressure the North to surrender and extract concessions."
"That is the standard approach. But would that not give us too little?"
"…What?"
"I have no interest in South America. But if Spain or France takes it too easily, that is not beneficial to Britain. So we must reconsider the premise. Is a Southern victory truly in our interest?"
Edward froze.
He, like Spain and France, had focused only on helping the South win. He had not considered the opposite outcome.
"In this war, there must be no winner."
"…Except us?"
"Exactly. Everyone else must lose."
The United States, Spain, and France alike.
Edward stared at me in shock.
A week later, news arrived that France would deploy a large army.
The war, once confined to North America, had entered a new phase.
Europe had begun to intervene.
***
If there was one misfortune for the United States, it was the lack of prestige attached to its name. It is difficult to imagine in the 21st century, but before the First World War, perceptions of the United States clearly placed it below Britain and France. In the mid-19th century, this gap was even more pronounced.
It was precisely because of this that a country like Spain dared to act boldly, selling weapons through back channels. The United States simply was not held in high regard by the European great powers. Yet if one were to ask whether that assessment was accurate, the answer would be no.
This was already the 1860s, well after the Mexican War. The industrial capacity of the Northern United States at this time was not something many European countries could match. Spain could not even compare, and only France could be considered roughly on the same level. The only country that clearly surpassed the United States was Britain.
Even from my perspective, it felt almost unfair. A land so rich and advantageous, and yet my own ancestors had been foolish enough to lose it as a colony. All I could do now was clean up the consequences. Still, the fact that I was the only one who saw it this way made the situation rather enjoyable.
Spain, having caused a major disturbance, still seemed to believe it had merely kicked a stray cat in passing.
"Have you heard that France is assembling an army?"
"Of course. It seems they truly intend to deploy troops."
"There are discussions that Spain should also formally enter the war."
"…Spain as well?"
From Spain's perspective, it had created the situation, only for France to step in and take advantage of it. However, considering Spain's actual capabilities, even gathering forces from Cuba and Puerto Rico would barely amount to a few tens of thousands.
"If we move beyond supplying weapons and send troops, that would mean formal war with the North."
"I am well aware. But now that France has officially recognized the South, supporting them is effectively the same as opposing the North."
"So Spain will recognize the South as well."
"Of course. If anything, we are already late. What about the British Empire?"
"As I have said before, we remain neutral."
I understood Córdoba and Prime Minister Leopoldo O'Donnell. But when everything seems to be going well, that is precisely when one must be most cautious. Most people know this, yet fail to act on it. Only when disaster strikes do they realize it, and by then it is too late.
Spain was losing its sense of reality as events continued to go in its favor. Of course, someone had guided things in that direction, though who that might be remained unclear. The innocent British Empire knew nothing.
If Spain was like this, France was no different. France was always prone to internal division, yet on this matter most agreed that confronting the United States was acceptable. A few intellectuals argued that supporting a slaveholding nation was wrong, but such voices carried no weight against national interest.
They were swept aside like insects before a rushing train.
In the end, France went beyond recognition and concluded a formal alliance with the Confederacy.
"The Kingdom of France and the Confederate States of America hereby conclude a mutual defense treaty and pledge to protect one another."
No one had expected them to go this far, but once announced, it could not be reversed. The North would never stop its campaign, which gave France justification to intervene at any moment. Soon after, France issued an ultimatum.
Though they filled it with elaborate reasoning to avoid appearing to support slavery, the essence was simple.
Slavery may be outdated, but that does not justify coercive action against another state.
In other words, they claimed not to support slavery, but to oppose the North's pressure on other nations. It was a contradiction, but truth mattered less than outcome.
"Cease hostilities with the South immediately and enter negotiations."
"That is absurd. This is interference in our internal affairs. Europe has no right to intervene in America."
"Europe has established order through the interaction of many states. The United States, however, uses its power to pressure its neighbors. If this continues, it will set a dangerous precedent."
The exchanges between the two continents grew more heated by the day. France deliberately provoked the United States to justify intervention, while the United States, aware of the trap, refused to yield.
Fifteen days after declaring its alliance with the South, France formally declared war on the United States.
France's entry into the war threw European politics into turmoil. While many had expected it eventually, the reality was another matter.
"I did not expect France to move so quickly. Why the urgency?"
"They must feel pressed."
"Spain is also preparing to enter. Their forces may be smaller, but France alone is significant."
"Britain must now decide its position."
The meeting gathered the most powerful figures of the British Empire. Charles Wellesley, Benjamin Disraeli, William Ewart Gladstone, and myself.
"How is the Liberal Party reacting?"
"Opinions are divided. Some want to restrain France, others to maintain neutrality, and some even propose supporting France."
"The Conservatives are the same."
"The War Office and Foreign Office are also divided."
This was no longer a minor issue. France's involvement alone placed real pressure on Britain.
It was the power of reputation. If the United States had been viewed as equal to Britain or France, Spain would never have dared act so boldly.
At the same time, reputation could distort judgment. People overestimated their opponents and hesitated before even testing reality.
The same was happening now. There was a growing belief that the war would quickly end with France's involvement. Spain's decision to rush into the conflict was driven by that perception.
Yet objectively, the North remained overwhelmingly strong. But perception turned this into a conflict between a rising but lesser power and the world's second strongest nation, inevitably skewing expectations.
Of course, no one ignored the difficulty of transporting large armies across the Atlantic. The problem was that the South could compensate for that weakness.
"The War Office believes the balance will quickly shift to the South?"
"Yes. The South's presence reduces the burden on France. With Spain also involved, they may gain overall superiority."
"I see. Then that is good."
"…Pardon?"
"If Britain thinks this way, then Spain and France will think the same."
Confusion filled the room.
"I have been tutoring Edward recently. He learns quickly, though his application still needs testing. This war provides an excellent opportunity."
They looked at me, unsure why I mentioned this.
"Britain must remain neutral. At least for now."
"If we remain neutral too long, we may gain nothing."
"The war will not end quickly. You are underestimating the United States."
This was not due to incompetence. Accurate data was simply unavailable. Even the United States did not fully understand its own strength.
"You believe the North can withstand France and Spain?"
"If this were Europe, perhaps not. But across the Atlantic, how many troops can they truly send? One reason the North has struggled is low morale."
The North had expected an easy victory. Facing unexpected resistance, morale suffered. The South fought to defend its homeland, while some in the North questioned why they should fight for black slaves.
"But if France and Spain intervene, the North will fight with full determination. Their citizens will enlist in large numbers. The scale of their army will expand rapidly."
Europe had not yet seen the true potential of the United States. Now, thanks to France and Spain, it would.
"And as their army expands, they will face shortages. Their rifles are also inferior to ours."
"…Are you suggesting we export to the North as well?"
"I have said so before."
"…You did. But I assumed it was a joke."
A joke?
I was always serious.