The intensification of the Civil War and France's intervention made 1861 a year that shocked the entire world. All of Europe turned its attention across the ocean, watching developments closely. Even Prussia, which had previously had little direct involvement with the New World, was no exception.
"I heard France suffered a major defeat in its first engagement. What do you think?"
"It seems the United States is stronger than expected. However, war is inherently unpredictable. It would be unwise to judge everything from a single battle. The Northern army that defeated France has also suffered multiple defeats against the South. In the end, if the war drags on, the side capable of winning will win."
"So you believe it is only a temporary result and not worth overanalyzing."
"Even so, the fact remains that France, once so proud, has taken a serious blow. From our perspective, that is not a bad outcome."
King Wilhelm, newly ascended to the Prussian throne that year, listened carefully to the opinions of his Foreign Minister, Otto von Bismarck. Though he had become king at over sixty years of age, Wilhelm's ambition was no less than that of younger monarchs. He had a keen eye for talent and did not dismiss Bismarck's advice lightly, despite the age difference between them.
"I would like to take advantage of France being distracted in the New World to establish dominance within Germany. What is your view?"
"I believe it is a sound idea. Russia is only now recovering from its recent defeat, and France is preoccupied with a new war. The issue is that our military reform has not yet been fully approved."
"The current Prime Minister hesitates to push through measures strongly opposed by Parliament. Since he will soon step down, it would be ideal if he made a decisive move before leaving."
"It seems assigning reserve command to active officers has provoked strong resistance. But it is only a matter of time."
Wilhelm had already decided to appoint Bismarck as the next Prime Minister once the current one stepped down. Bismarck had likewise agreed to push through the stalled military reforms by force if necessary. Up to this point, their visions aligned perfectly.
However, their views diverged slightly when it came to future strategy.
"If we complete military reform, can we truly gain a clear advantage over Austria?"
"Certainly. To be honest, Austria is no longer our primary concern. The real issue lies with the surrounding great powers."
"You mean France and Russia."
"And one more. The British Empire."
Many already understood that Austria's strength had declined significantly. Though it had suppressed recent revolutions, unrest in Hungary continued, finances were strained, and its military was weak. Even the newly formed Kingdom of Italy was not aligned with Austria and could potentially be drawn to Prussia's side.
The real problem was Austria's alliance with Britain. This was why Bismarck hesitated to pursue dominance within Germany immediately.
"Austria participated alongside us in the recent war against Russia. If we move against them, they will appeal to Britain for mediation."
"Would Britain accept?"
"If I were Britain's Prime Minister, I would. It would grant them legitimate influence over German affairs. It is a complex situation, but Britain's leadership is capable of manipulating it to their advantage."
"Then you believe Britain would intervene."
"Diplomacy is driven by national interest, not personal ties. Even if we are closer to Britain, they would not allow any single power to dominate Germany."
Prussia had already benefited from British support in suppressing the Taiping Rebellion, gaining access to Asia. Even as an ally, Britain was unlikely to grant further advantages.
"It is unfortunate. Opportunities like this, where France and Russia can both be set aside, are rare."
"I agree. But there are too many variables to act hastily."
Unlike the king, Bismarck remained cautious. France might be distracted, but not indefinitely. Austria, though weakened, was not guaranteed to fall easily in war. Russia, despite its recent defeat, would eventually recover. And if France succeeded in the American war, it might emerge even stronger.
Balancing these factors within the chaotic landscape of German politics was a daunting task.
At that moment, as if reading his thoughts, a message arrived from the British Embassy.
"Your Majesty, Britain has requested a meeting to coordinate the schedule for next year's exposition. They specifically ask for the Foreign Minister to attend."
"To discuss an exposition schedule, they request the Foreign Minister?"
The pretext was obvious. This was not merely about an exposition.
For Prussia, it was an opportunity.
"I will go myself and settle the matter."
"Very well."
Without further discussion, both Wilhelm and Bismarck understood each other. They would hear Britain's intentions directly.
The winds of war from America were now reaching deep into Europe.
As soon as a telegram was sent to the Prussian embassy, Bismarck replied that he would come in person. Dealing with perceptive people was always convenient. There was no need for repeated explanations.
While such meetings were usually handled by ministers or deputies, this was, at least on the surface, a discussion about the next exposition. London was scheduled to host the upcoming one, but perhaps Berlin could host the following event. Under such circumstances, it was not unusual for me to attend personally, especially as I had organized the first exposition and ensured its success.
"Minister, it has been a long time. I did not expect you to arrive so quickly. I am grateful."
"The pleasure is mine."
Bismarck entered Buckingham Palace with the polished smile of a seasoned politician.
"Years have passed, yet time seems unable to diminish Your Highness's presence. If anything, you appear even more distinguished."
"That applies to you as well. Each time I see you, you seem to have risen further."
For several minutes, we exchanged polite compliments before briefly addressing the official topic.
"Then Berlin would be suitable for the following exposition. I will offer my full support."
"With Britain's backing, it would be practically guaranteed. This journey has been worthwhile."
"Between us, it is only natural to help one another."
The discussion of the exposition lasted barely thirty minutes. Then Bismarck's expression shifted, and he finally raised the true purpose of his visit.
"I hear Austria is also interested in hosting. Have you heard anything?"
"Nothing confirmed so far."
"The next exposition is in Paris, but given France's current situation, there may be concerns."
"There is no need to worry. This war will not last long."
Bismarck reacted immediately.
"Not last long? That differs from our assessment."
"That is understandable. Those not directly involved only see surface-level information."
It was a subtle challenge. Whose judgment was more accurate?
Rather than take offense, Bismarck showed interest.
"I heard France suffered a defeat in its first battle. Would that not make them more cautious and prolong the war?"
"That is one possibility. But France has instead decided to commit more forces after this defeat. And we will supply them with better weapons."
At present, we were mass-producing the improved Killian Enfield, but that was still only an upgraded rifled musket. Meanwhile, the Enfield armory was already developing firearms based on more advanced mechanisms, far ahead of their original timeline due to increased funding and guidance.
Naturally, such weapons would not be exported immediately. The British Army would use them first. Only later would they enter the market.
"Britain's technological progress is remarkable, but is it really possible to produce new weapons so quickly?"
"I was surprised myself. Perhaps we are in a period of rapid advancement. Other nations will catch up in a few years, but those few years are critical."
I added casually,
"By the way, Austria has also requested to purchase these new rifles."
"Austria? Is that true?"
It was, of course, a lie.
But not one without purpose.
***
The Germans had always lived with a dream of a unified empire. Whether it came from nostalgia for the old Holy Roman Empire, dissatisfaction with their current division, or both, it was an undeniable truth.
What was interesting was that while they all desired unity, their visions of that empire differed. Some even imagined including Austria entirely, but fortunately, Otto von Bismarck was not such a fanciful man.
Even so, in the struggle for leadership within Germany, conflict between Austria and Prussia was inevitable. Any increase in Austrian power was an unacceptable threat to Prussia, especially at a time when military reforms were underway to strengthen the army.
"Your Highness, Austria is suffering from chronic financial difficulties. They do not have the funds to import large quantities of new weapons. If anyone told you such a thing, they are a fraudster and should be imprisoned immediately."
"They may not have the money, but when there is no money, tradition dictates payment in other forms. Austria holds several islands near India. We are considering accepting those in exchange."
"…I see."
It was a bluff, but one that could be made reality at any moment. Bismarck looked doubtful, yet he had no real way to verify it. If Austria were truly offered the choice of trading distant islands they could barely manage for modern weapons, their response was not difficult to imagine.
"Those islands near India will become British territory eventually anyway. Is it worth giving away advanced weapons for them?"
"In ten or fifteen years, perhaps. But time itself is money. If time can be bought, it is worth buying."
There was no politician unaware of how obsessively Britain guarded India. Bismarck knew this well, and though he set aside his doubts, he did not appear discouraged. He had already concluded that this "secret" was not a disadvantage to Prussia.
"I understand. But there must be a reason you chose to share this with me."
"I simply wished to show consideration for you. After all, I have long observed the relationship between Prussia and Austria."
"Thank you. Though I had believed Your Highness to be someone who prioritizes national interest above all else."
"You understand me well. Then you must also know that I ensure my allies benefit alongside us."
That was not a lie. Even allies needed to be rewarded. Of course, Britain would take the greater share, but that did not need to be said aloud.
"In the war against Russia and the suppression of the Taiping Rebellion, all who stood with Britain received appropriate rewards. I have even shared benefits with distant nations such as Korea and Japan."
"So you intend to extend the same consideration to Prussia?"
"Of course. In fact, I do not believe Russia is finished. If conflict arises again, it would be better to have strong allies. Strengthening Prussia would be far more effective than strengthening Austria."
"That is undeniable. The Prussian army is far superior."
If things continued as they were, Austria would inevitably fall behind Prussia. What Bismarck wanted most was simple. That Britain would remain neutral and refrain from mediating.
"However, Austria is still our ally. Ignoring their requests entirely could raise doubts about our leadership."
"…I see."
"But if another ally supports Prussia, that gives us justification to step aside."
"Another ally? Aside from Prussia and Austria…"
Bismarck paused, then frowned.
"You mean France?"
"Yes. If France supports Prussia, then Britain, from a broader perspective, would have no choice but to align with both France and Prussia. At the very least, we may find ourselves too occupied to intervene in German affairs."
"France has always opposed Prussia gaining dominance in Germany. If anything, they would support Austria."
That would normally be true. But circumstances had changed.
"Minister, would you like to speak directly with the head of France?"
"…What do you mean?"
"He is in London at the moment. Let us hold a three-party meeting."
Though the situation felt unusual, Bismarck had no reason to refuse.
In a reception room at Buckingham Palace sat three figures. François Guizot, Otto von Bismarck, and myself, representing the British Empire.
It was an unusual scene, and naturally, it fell to me to guide the discussion.
"To see representatives of Britain, France, and Germany gathered at one table, this is surely a symbol of harmony and peace. Let us drink."
"…I accepted the invitation, but I did not expect Minister Bismarck to be here."
"The feeling is mutual. I did not expect the Prime Minister of France to be in London during wartime."
"That is due to what I mentioned earlier. France will receive priority supply of a new rifle even superior to the Killian Enfield."
Guizot spoke calmly, as arranged beforehand, while Bismarck accepted the explanation without suspicion.
"Your Highness said this war would not last long. Do you share that view?"
"Of course. At most three years, perhaps even two."
"That differs from our expectations of four to five years."
"That is understandable from an external perspective. But soon, new weapons will be fully deployed, and at the right moment, Britain's navy will intervene. France's navy will follow, blockading Northern ports. At that point, the outcome will be inevitable."
There was no lie in that statement, only timing left unsaid.
Bismarck, hearing this for the first time, had no choice but to reconsider everything.
"So Britain will eventually intervene."
"Of course. France and Britain are closely aligned."
"Let us say brothers rather than one body."
"Then I hope Prussia will join us as well."
"That is unexpected. France has always been wary of us. Why the change?"
"The time has come to move beyond rivalry within Europe. Each nation should secure its own sphere without unnecessary conflict. The world is vast enough for all of us."
It was a reasonable argument, but Bismarck was not one to accept it at face value.
"So if we stay out of your affairs, France will not interfere in ours?"
"As long as it does not cross certain lines. For example, outright annexation of Austria."
"We have no intention of biting off more than we can swallow."
"Then perhaps Prussia should join this war."
"…You offer to ignore German unification if we participate?"
"There are contradictions in that proposal."
"What contradictions?"
"You claim victory is assured, yet ask for our support. And if we commit our strength abroad, how are we to compete with Austria? That would only benefit them."
As expected, Bismarck saw through it immediately.
I stepped in.
"Minister, why assume Austria alone will benefit?"
"…What do you mean?"
"Do you believe France would refuse to aid its ally in the future? If Prussia requires assistance later, France will surely support you."
"…Yes, of course."
Guizot hesitated but agreed.
In exchange for participation now, France would support Prussia during its future conflicts. It was a heavy price, but France had already committed too deeply to withdraw.
Bismarck considered it carefully. If resources spent now could be recovered later, and if political support against Austria was guaranteed, the balance was acceptable.
"In that case, it is worth considering. But I have one more condition."
"Another?"
"If we join, we must share in the spoils. Cotton, food, or colonial opportunities. Prussia must gain something tangible."
"…Very well. It will be guaranteed."
With that, Bismarck secured written confirmation.
It was a fragile arrangement built on mutual exploitation rather than trust, but that was the nature of diplomacy in this era.
After the meeting, Bismarck lingered, clearly hoping to gain more.
"Your Highness, perhaps we could dine together tomorrow?"
"Of course. I will also invite Karl Marx. Have you read his recent work, Capital?"
"…On second thought, I should return immediately to report to His Majesty."
He left quickly.
Internally, he likely planned to use this war to extract as much as possible from France and push toward German unification. Whether things would unfold so neatly remained uncertain.
France and Prussia intervening in an American war rather than fighting each other in Europe. The structure was reversed, but the scale was approaching something like a world war.
If this could serve as a vaccine against a future catastrophe, it would be fortunate. But I knew better than to expect that.
To avoid such a future, the British Empire had to grow stronger.
Which meant,
selling even more weapons.
In a capitalist world, money feeds everything.
***
[Prussia supports its ally France]
Prussia's declaration that it would raise a massive army and cross the Atlantic to support France carried significant implications. Though Prussia and France were naturally destined to oppose one another, that now seemed to belong to the past.
Some even entertained the hopeful thought that if this war ended well, Europe might become more peaceful. Others questioned what France could have possibly promised to draw Prussia into the conflict. In reality, Prussia had been promised support for German unification, which was more than enough reason to join the war, but only a handful knew the truth.
After hearing the details of the secret agreement from Otto von Bismarck, King Wilhelm carefully framed the reasoning and successfully mobilized a large army.
In truth, the Prussian ruling class, the Junkers, were more sympathetic to the South than the North. The reason was simple. Many of them were deeply aristocratic in mindset, and they felt a sense of kinship with the Southern elite who managed vast plantations and lived in a similarly aristocratic manner. Their general dislike of democracy also played a role.
"The people as masters of the state? What nonsense. We are the masters of this country."
"Ever since those Americans started spreading talk of democracy, things have gone downhill."
"And if we want a steady supply of cotton, the South needs to survive. British control of Egyptian cotton already limits our options."
On top of that, the grand vision of establishing vast colonies in South America and using the South as a forward base proved surprisingly persuasive. The level of support was so strong that even Wilhelm himself was momentarily taken aback.
With momentum on its side, Prussia passed its long-desired military reforms and, as promised, dispatched a substantial force across the Atlantic.
"We must not follow France's example and begin with defeat."
"The main front is already held by the South and France. We will strike where the enemy is weak. Our first target is New Mexico."
"Should we not join our allies and focus on breaking the enemy's main force instead?"
"Widening the front places greater strain on the enemy. As a coalition, we should exploit our advantage and pressure them from multiple directions."
Confident, the Prussian army advanced.
"General, we have defeated the New Mexico defense forces."
"As expected. From here, we will secure the western territories for the South. There is no need for us to shed unnecessary blood in someone else's war."
"His Majesty did say that we must achieve results comparable to France if we wish to expand into South America later."
"Then we will probe northward from here. Our mere presence will pressure the Union."
Prussia's strategy was clear. Minimize losses while securing tangible victories. Initially, it worked. The North, already struggling against the South and France, now faced additional pressure from the frontier.
However, once the North fully transitioned into total war using its rapidly expanded railway network, the situation became uncertain again.
"You claim to be holding them here, but what is actually happening?"
"They keep transporting troops using railways. We cannot pin them down."
"Then destroy the railways."
True total war was unfamiliar to all sides, leading to confusion everywhere.
"If they are mobilizing so many men, who is farming?"
"They use machines. Even women can manage the fields."
"This is madness. How long must this war continue?"
France and Prussia slowly realized they had fallen into a vast quagmire, but there was no escape. What had become an international war forced both North and South to pour in men and resources without limit, while France and Prussia continued feeding the conflict despite mounting losses.
"We must defend our homeland!"
"Do not let the Northern Yankees take our country!"
"Black or white, we are all citizens of the United States. Unite and drive out the greedy European invaders!"
Battles erupted across North America without pause. Gunfire and artillery never ceased. The rebuilt Northern navy bombarded Southern coasts, and even the seas were no longer safe.
More than a year passed as the war took on the scale of a global conflict.
"We must request additional support."
"Again? We just did."
"The South is mobilizing another hundred thousand troops. If we push now, we can end this."
"You said that six months ago. We sent two hundred thousand, and they responded with three hundred thousand. This is madness."
"Mad or not, we must continue. If we withdraw now, we gain nothing. Our only path is victory and compensation from the defeated."
General Robert E. Lee, now commander-in-chief of the Confederate forces, looked at the French and Prussian officers with visible strain.
In truth, the South's current position was entirely dependent on France and Prussia. Spain had contributed mainly through supplying weapons and had little impact on the battlefield. The fragile cooperation between France and Prussia had been maintained largely due to Lee's personal leadership and diplomacy.
"Gentlemen, calm yourselves. Our losses are significant, but the North's losses are even greater. Thanks to Prussia's efforts, we now control New Mexico and access to the Gulf."
"But we still cannot seize their main positions."
"That is not a problem. Their strength lies in numbers. But losses are accumulating. They cannot sustain this indefinitely."
While the North relied on overwhelming manpower, its troops were often inferior in quality compared to French and Prussian forces.
"General Ulysses S. Grant has consistently suffered heavier losses than us. Even their naval dominance has been weakened thanks to our allies. The advantage is slowly shifting to our side."
"The problem is time. At this pace, the war will not end for at least two more years. France cannot sustain such losses."
"Was it not France that claimed the war would end quickly?"
"Do not worry. It will not last that long."
With both France and Prussia growing increasingly desperate, Lee requested decisive action from President Jefferson Davis.
A move that could bring a decisive advantage.
"…In summary, the situation is slightly in our favor."
President Davis listened to General Thomas Jackson and let out a long sigh.
"After all this, only slightly?"
"Yes. The North's resistance is stronger than expected."
"Even with France and Prussia involved…"
Without their support, the South would have already been crushed. That realization alone was chilling.
"Sir, France and Prussia are pressing us for greater commitment. They imply they may withdraw support otherwise."
"They send troops and now act as if they command us. How many more men do they expect?"
The South had already mobilized nearly a million men. Yet the North had mobilized over two million. Even accounting for rotation, these numbers shocked Europe.
The North's use of railways for efficient troop movement rivaled Britain itself. Its scale of mobilization exceeded anything Europe had seen.
Davis understood clearly.
France and Prussia were not simply helping. They were trying to weaken the United States itself, especially the North. The South was merely a tool.
"…Prepare a message. Tell them to be patient. A decisive opportunity will come."
"…You intend to proceed?"
"General Lee believes the time is right. We have also coordinated with Britain."
With both sides exhausted and the frontlines stabilized, any spark could shift the war dramatically.
"To end this war, we must bring them fully into it."
"Understood. I will inform France and Prussia and prepare the necessary forces for Canada."
Everything had been prepared in secrecy for this moment.
Now, it was time.
The British Empire had profited from this war long enough.
If this conflict was to end,
they would have to enter it as well.