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Chapter 16 - The Five Percent Probability

The radiator in the back of the classroom hissed like a dying snake.

Outside, the sky was a bruised purple—the kind of winter afternoon that tasted like soot and wet asphalt.

Su Cheng tapped the chalkboard. The white dust coated his fingers. He was trying to explain the probability of a recurring variable, but the symbols looked like chicken scratch to the others.

"If the house always wins," Su Cheng whispered, his voice cracking from the dry air, "it's because the house understands the curve. You don't bet on the card. You bet on the frequency."

Han Jue leaned back, his chair creaking. He had a crumpled pack of cigarettes hidden in his sock and a wad of crumpled bills in his pocket. He didn't know the math, but he knew the math's shadow.

"He's saying don't be a sucker," Han Jue translated. He pulled three mismatched bottle caps from his desk. He moved them in a blur across the wood.

"If I hide the red one under the middle, and I move it twice—your brain thinks it's on the left. But I kept it in my palm the whole time. That's your variable, Cheng. The lie in the hand."

Lin Kai watched the caps. His eyes were sharp, scanning for the hitch in Han Jue's wrist. He didn't speak. He never spoke much.

He just reached into his pocket and pulled out a handful of loose change—sticky with lint and copper-smell—and pushed it toward Zhou Yan.

Zhou Yan's stomach had been growling for three hours. He hadn't eaten since the previous night.

His father was "between jobs" again, which meant the fridge was empty and the electricity was a luxury they didn't have.

"Take it," Lin Kai muttered. "I'm not hungry."

It was a lie. They all knew it. But Zhou Yan took the coins. His knuckles were bruised from boxing practice, or maybe from a door he'd hit too hard.

"I'll pay you back," Zhou Yan said.

"Don't," Lin Kai replied. "Just keep your head up."

Li Feng sat in the corner, his hood pulled low. He was the quietest of the four. He was the "charity case," the adopted son of a man who smelled like cheap gin and old resentment.

Li Feng's left eye was swollen shut, a nasty yellow-green bruise blooming under the skin.

He didn't look at the math. He didn't look at the bottle caps. He just stared at the floor.

"He did it again?" Zhou Yan asked. His voice was low. Dangerous.

Li Feng didn't nod. He didn't have to. The way he flinched when the door slammed at the end of the hall said enough.

"He's my father," Li Feng whispered.

"No," Zhou Yan said, standing up.

The chair hit the floor with a dull thud. He walked over and put a heavy, calloused hand on Li Feng's shoulder.

"He's just the guy who shares your address. We're your blood."

Han Jue stopped moving the caps. He reached into his bag and pulled out a half-eaten sandwich wrapped in greasy foil. He tore it in half.

He gave the bigger piece to Li Feng and the rest to Zhou Yan.

"Eat," Han Jue commanded. "The math doesn't work if you're dead."

Su Cheng watched them. He felt small, his chalkboard and his equations useless against the smell of poverty and the sight of a broken eye. He wiped the chalk from his hands onto his jeans.

"The probability of us making it out of this town is less than five percent," Su Cheng said, his voice trembling.

Lin Kai looked up from the shadows. "Then we'll be the five percent."

They shared the bread. It was stale. It tasted like cold ham and desperation. They sat in the dim light of the failing heater, four losers in a world that didn't want them.

Li Feng took a bite of the sandwich. The salt hit the cut on his lip, stinging like hell. He looked at Zhou Yan, then at the others.

For the first time that day, his hand stopped shaking.

"Tomorrow," Li Feng said, his voice steady. "We go back. All of us."

"All of us," they echoed.

The bell rang. It sounded like a funeral knell.

They stepped out into the rain. The water soaked through their cheap sneakers in seconds, turning their socks into cold, wet rags.

​Han Jue shivered. The damp cotton of his t-shirt clung to his skin like a dead weight.

Li Feng wiped a mix of rainwater and blood from his lip; it tasted like copper and road salt.

​Nobody looked back.

​They just walked. Five sets of wet shoes slapped against the asphalt in a messy, uneven rhythm.

The wind bit at their necks. Tomorrow was coming, and it didn't feel like a promise. It felt like a punch.

Lin Kai gripped his Shuangshou-jian—a pair of short, weighted daggers built for a quick throat-slit.

The silk of his mask was damp from his own breath. It smelled like stale spit. Below him, the roof tiles were slick with moss.

His palms were slick. He wiped them on his thighs, the dark fabric rasping against his skin.

"It's okay, Kai," he whispered. The modern name felt like a secret weapon. "Just a brawl. One path."

Lin Kai blinked away the sweat. Number 3 was a smudge on the roofline. Number 4 was a shadow that didn't move.

The sound of hooves hit the dirt.

Clop.Clop.

Heavy. Slow.

The sky was a blackout. Lin Kai's stomach felt like it was full of cold stones. A scent hit him—something sharp under the smell of wet horse hair. It was familiar.

The bridge was a spine of gray stone. Only half the lanterns were lit. The rest were dead, swinging in the wind.

Zhou Yan felt the back of his neck prickle. It was a cold, electric crawl under his skin. The God of Death's intuition.

"Wei Da," Zhou Yan rasped. He clutched the cold iron of his halberd. His stitches pulled at his side, a sharp, hot reminder that he was barely holding together. "Danger's lurking. You feel it?"

Wei Da didn't look at him. He scanned the shadows, his hand on his sword hilt. "There is nowhere safe in this kingdom, General. The bridge is a bottleneck. We are targets."

Zhou Yan spit. The copper taste of old blood was still in his mouth. "Then let them come."

Han Jue stood in the shadow of a closed tailor shop. He gripped the "Golden Ledger."

It was just a stack of rice paper filled with gibberish and grocery lists, bound in expensive leather.

"We wait," Han Jue told Bai Lan. His voice was a dry thread. "Whoever strikes first is the one we bleed."

"The Prince is late," Bai Lan whispered.

"Good," Han Jue said. He adjusted the heavy silver ring on his thumb. It was cold. "Gives us time to see who else is invited to the funeral. Don't move until I say. If the math goes wrong, we run."

Li Feng walked. Every step felt like he was dragging his feet through wet cement. His golden-threaded boots were ruined, caked in the same orange mud from the ravine.

"Your Highness, this is madness," Fuige hissed at his shoulder. "We don't know who is in the dark. They'll strike first."

Li Feng stopped at the mouth of the bridge. His heart was a hammer against his ribs. He felt small. He felt like the kid with the swollen eye again.

"I don't know, Fuige," Li Feng said. His voice didn't shake, but his hands did.

He tucked them into his wide sleeves.

"Something's pulling me here. If I die, I die fighting. Better than waiting for a decree in a dark room."

He stepped into the light of the first lantern.

On the roof, Lin Kai's daggers slid from their sheaths with a quiet, metallic hiss.

Then, a new sound.

​The frantic, uneven beat of a horse pushed too hard. The animal was heaving, its breath coming in wet, white plumes.

It skidded onto the cobblestones at the foot of the bridge, its hooves sparking against the rock.

​Su Cheng was bent over the pommel, his face a mask of pale sweat and mud. He looked ridiculous. He looked like a nerd who had never touched a horse in his life, clutching the reins like a lifeline.

​He didn't see the Shadow in the trees. He didn't see the General's halberd. He just saw the Prince and the Merchant, standing like statues in the lantern light.

​Su Cheng raised his right hand. He was waving a silk scroll, the fabric snapping in the wind like a white flag.

​"Stop!" Su Cheng screamed. His voice was high, cracked, and desperate. It tore through the silence of the ravine. "In the name of the Imperial Audit! Nobody moves!"

​He pulled the reins too hard. The horse reared, its chest slick with lather. Su Cheng nearly slid from the saddle, his heavy rings clattering against the wood as he steadied himself.

He was gasping for air, the cold night oxygen burning his lungs.

​Li Feng froze.

Zhou Yan gripped his iron.

Han Jue's thumb slipped on his silver ring.

Up on the roof, Lin Kai's finger twitched on the hilt of his dagger.

​The four of them stared at the muddy, shaking man in the middle of the road. Su Cheng stood there, alone and panting, holding a piece of paper against an army of ghosts.

The "Variables" were on the bridge. The equation was closed.

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