The American Civil War began with a preemptive strike by the South.
To outsiders, it seemed sudden.
Unexpected.
But it was not impulsive.
About a month before the war,
following South Carolina,
Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, and Alabama declared secession.
Then Jefferson Davis persuaded Virginia, North Carolina, Arkansas, and Tennessee.
He even proposed making Richmond the capital to bring Virginia in.
With more than ten states aligned,
they were already a nation in all but name.
But objectively,
the South was inferior.
Military.
Economy.
Population.
They knew this.
They still chose war.
Because they felt their survival was threatened.
The North spoke of rights and justice.
But the South's foundation was slavery.
To them,
abolition meant destruction.
So this was resistance.
A fight for survival.
Davis used this logic.
Each state held votes.
Then officially declared secession.
The Union would not accept it.
Abraham Lincoln even said he would rather die than lose a single star from the flag.
If they seceded,
force would follow.
In open war,
the South would lose.
Most weapons were produced in the North.
The South lacked supply.
Then,
help appeared.
"So Spain can supply weapons?"
"Yes."
Spain's minister Belgrano approached Davis secretly.
"Can Spain produce that much?"
"It does not need to. We can acquire them."
"Like before… during the Mexico war?"
Spain had done this before.
Supplying weapons indirectly.
Davis had hated it then.
Now,
he accepted.
"But the North will react."
"We have a solution."
"If ports are blocked,
we use Mexico."
"Mexico… that works."
The North could not block trade there.
"And at the start?"
"We strike first."
"Disrupt their navy."
Davis had planned this.
But he asked further.
"Can we buy warships?"
"That may be too direct."
"We will consider it."
"As long as weapons are secured."
"That is guaranteed."
The biggest concern was solved.
Now only preparation remained.
Davis persuaded the Southern states.
They seized federal forts.
They gathered weapons.
They prepared troops.
Then,
Fort Sumter.
The war began.
The Confederate States were formed.
Davis became president.
He emphasized legitimacy.
"We fight to protect white dignity and order given by God."
Cheers followed.
"We defend our homes and livelihood."
"True justice is ours."
The South lacked resources.
But they had purpose.
They struck first.
They damaged Northern positions.
This ensured the war would not end quickly.
Battles continued.
Blood spread.
Casualties grew.
The madness crossed the Atlantic.
Europe began to hear of it.
Britain received official news in early 1861.
No one expected this.
War?
Large-scale war?
Long war?
All doubts became reality.
It began to affect the economy.
[American Civil War begins]
[Norfolk naval base lost]
[Experts predict prolonged war]
"Ha ha ha!"
"What is so amusing?"
Charles Wellesley laughed.
"Look at this. His Highness was right again."
Headlines praised him.
Cotton diversification.
Food imports secured.
Critics apologized.
"With this, my position is secure."
"Congratulations."
"Now my influence is absolute."
Debate spread across Britain.
Neutrality or intervention.
Opinions divided.
But Britain was free.
No dependence.
"Parliament requests your opinion."
"They want Canada's view."
"No problem."
I attended the next day.
Debate had already begun.
John Bright spoke first.
"This is simple. Slavery or not. Britain abolished slavery. Our stance is clear."
Workers supported him.
But not all agreed.
Henry John Temple disagreed.
"Morally, the North is right. But we are not Americans. We serve British interests."
"Then you support slavery?"
"No. The North itself tolerates it for now. Why should we interfere?"
"If the Union divides, we benefit."
Many agreed.
Even within parties, opinions split.
Benjamin Disraeli did not oppose that view.
Neither did others.
But openly supporting the South would damage Britain's image.
So they avoided it.
Debate intensified.
Then all eyes turned to me.
I stood.
"All arguments have merit."
"For honor, support the North."
"For profit, support the South."
"But we cannot have everything."
"Canada has accepted many blacks."
"So we cannot support the South."
"Exactly!"
Cheers followed.
But I raised my hand.
"I am not finished."
Silence.
"Sometimes, we should aim to have both."
Confusion spread.
I spoke calmly.
"Canada will declare support for the North."
"But remain neutral."
"We will not intervene."
"Our factories will continue as they are."
That was the policy.
Clear.
Unchanged.
And decisive.
***
"Your Highness… I do not quite understand. May I ask a question?"
"Of course."
"Declaring support for the North while maintaining neutrality makes sense given Canada's population. But continuing to run arms factories, is that not contradictory?"
John Bright was not the only one confused.
Even Henry John Temple looked puzzled.
It was a reasonable question.
If supporting the South, it would make sense.
But the North already had large industry.
They would not need much from Canada.
Even if the war dragged on,
running factories at full capacity would be wasteful.
Lord John Russell added quickly.
"If Canada fully supports the North, the South will collapse quickly. But we already import large amounts of food. Is this necessary?"
"It is a valid concern."
"That is precisely why we remain neutral."
"If the North wins too quickly, the United States may become too powerful."
"Then we should support the South…"
"That is rejected."
"Declaring neutrality already requires justification."
"Supporting the South is impossible."
"The factories will continue because the buyers are decided."
"Canada has signed contracts to supply Spain and Mexico."
"Spain? Mexico?"
Most members looked at each other.
Confused.
So I explained.
"Recently, Spain's ambassador, Córdoba, approached me."
"They are concerned about the United States."
"Even civil war is possible."
"That creates fear."
"That is reasonable."
Large-scale civil war was rare in Europe.
The United States was striking both enemies and itself.
Naturally, neighbors were uneasy.
"So Spain wants to increase armament?"
"Yes. They requested it from Canada."
"I approved it."
"And Mexico?"
"Mexico suffered twice from American aggression."
"They want to strengthen defense."
"That is natural."
"So the structure is clear."
"The North will buy some."
"The rest goes to Spain and Mexico."
"That balances production."
"That is correct."
"We do not intervene."
"But we still gain from the war."
"Cold perhaps."
"But necessary."
Some nodded.
It was a compromise.
"Then we will not export directly to the South?"
"Weapons made by black workers should not go to those who deny them humanity."
"Excellent."
The pro-North faction was satisfied.
But Lord John Russell still looked uneasy.
"If the North wins quickly, the benefit ends quickly."
"Palmerston, do not forget. We cannot support slavery."
"…Still, if the South collapses this year, losses may occur."
"Gentlemen, please."
I raised my hand.
"The war will not end quickly."
These statements would be recorded.
So I chose my words carefully.
"North and South have different goals."
"That alone ensures a long war."
"What do you mean?"
"For the North to win, it must crush all resistance."
"Every state."
"But the South?"
"…It does not need to win."
Understanding spread.
"They only need to endure."
"If they prolong the war, public opinion in the North will change."
"At first, support is strong."
"But casualties will grow."
"Doubt will appear."
"The South will frame it as white men dying for black slaves."
"If I were their commander, I would delay."
"Wait for opposition."
"That makes sense."
"The North must reclaim everything."
"The South only needs separation."
Different goals.
Different difficulty.
"Motivation also matters."
"The South fights for survival."
"The North may lose will over time."
"So the war will not end quickly."
"It is unfortunate."
"But intervention is not our role."
"Neutrality is best."
Palmerston and Russell fell silent.
Even I thought the explanation worked well.
"If Parliament disagrees, I will follow."
"Canada's authority does not exceed Parliament."
This ensured legitimacy.
No one could accuse me of acting alone.
The atmosphere improved.
Then Charles Wellesley concluded.
"If Parliament approves neutrality, the government will proceed."
"Shall we vote?"
"Proceed."
That day,
Britain declared the war a civil conflict.
Non-intervention was confirmed.
And my authority over Canada was reaffirmed.
After the session,
I shared a carriage with William Ewart Gladstone.
"Your speech unified Parliament."
"It was effective."
"I only suggested a compromise."
"Still impressive."
"Both morality and profit matter."
"I also thought a longer war might benefit us."
"But there is a concern."
"What concern?"
"The North will recover naval strength."
"They could blockade the South."
"If so, public opinion may not turn."
"True."
"But if the South keeps fighting…"
"They only need endurance."
"…There is no guarantee."
"Indeed."
"But tell me."
"Do you think we are the only ones hoping for a long war?"
Gladstone paused.
He understood.
"You did not say that in Parliament…"
"It would harm Britain's image."
I emphasized the word.
He nodded.
"In that case, I have a request."
"A request?"
"You are seen as neutral."
"People trust that."
"If you are willing."
"What is it?"
"It is for the Empire."
Selling weapons alone was inefficient.
Steamships would be more profitable.
So I would have him act.
And expand the trade.