It was still early in the war,
but the North was shaken by stronger-than-expected Southern resistance.
The South had launched a large surprise attack
and destroyed much of the Union navy.
Even so,
the manpower gap was nearly three to one.
The Northern leadership believed this was not even a war.
Just suppression.
"Those Dixie farmers holding rifles instead of tools are no real threat."
"Three months. We will take Richmond and end this."
Their confidence was not arrogance.
Objectively,
the difference in strength justified it.
The problem was excessive optimism.
The Confederacy had already framed the war
as a holy struggle to defend white dignity.
Young men enlisted in large numbers.
The Union relied on militias.
They believed three months was enough.
So enlistments were set for three months.
Uniforms were not even standardized.
Mistaking enemy for ally happened often.
The early suppression failed.
Instead,
Southern morale rose.
The Union leadership was shocked.
Watching this,
Abraham Lincoln recognized the seriousness.
He acted immediately.
"We will revise our strategy completely."
"All plans for short suppression are discarded."
"First, expand the army for long-term war."
"Second, rebuild the navy quickly."
"Blockade the South."
"The generals will handle this."
"The State Department must prevent European intervention."
"You believe Europe will intervene?"
"If the war drags on, it is possible."
"Russia already warned us."
Silence followed.
Unlike other nations,
Russia supported the Union.
After its defeat,
it had lost influence in Europe.
So it sought closer ties with the United States.
Its information was trusted.
Especially regarding Britain.
"Britain is divided between factions."
"Some support the South."
"Support slavery?"
"Diplomacy is pragmatic."
"Britain abolished slavery because it was no longer profitable."
"We must prevent British intervention."
Britain was the strongest power.
If it joined,
France would follow.
The Union could not handle that.
Especially if the South became a base for Europe.
"Send Charles Francis Adams Sr. to Britain."
"He must block intervention."
"And prevent recognition of the Confederacy."
"Yes, Mr. President."
"Also… what about Canadian supplies?"
"We will accept them."
"…No."
"No need to provoke them."
"Find out what Canada intends."
Canada was crucial.
And everyone knew who controlled it.
Killian.
Was he truly peaceful?
Lincoln was not certain.
Blind trust was dangerous.
So he remained cautious.
At the same time,
the South prepared its own diplomacy.
"According to Spain's ambassador Belgrano,
Europe leans toward neutrality."
"That is disappointing."
"Neutrality still favors us."
"Europe abolished slavery."
"So neutrality already helps us."
"Then why is Spain so well informed?"
Davis had received accurate information.
Every prediction had been correct.
"Belgrano's words are not his alone."
"He receives information from Britain."
"But even that is not enough."
"He also gives timely advice."
"About John Breckinridge?"
"Yes."
Breckinridge was a Southern supporter.
He planned to join the Confederacy.
But Belgrano advised otherwise.
Remain in the Union.
Act as an exile.
Gather information.
"In early war, his information is useful."
"But long-term, less so."
"Remaining inside helps more."
So Breckinridge stayed.
As a hidden asset.
"Then Europe supports us secretly."
"If we secure them fully,"
"we can endure."
"Assign envoys."
"Britain and France."
"Yes."
"And one more thing."
"Do not threaten Europe with cotton."
"It will create hostility."
"That is a last resort."
The war was not just military.
It had already become diplomatic.
< Britain declares neutrality >
< No support for either side >
< "True statesmanship balances honor and profit" >
As expected,
the news spread quickly.
Even across the Atlantic,
the economies were tied.
Past financial crises proved it.
The ambassadors already knew.
Now,
they would act.
"Your Highness, the guest has arrived."
"Send him in."
The American ambassador,
Charles Francis Adams Sr.,
entered and bowed.
"Thank you for receiving me."
"Welcome to Britain."
Servants left.
He spoke immediately.
"I heard of Parliament's decision."
"You opposed support for the South."
"I thank you."
"I only stated the obvious."
"Slavery cannot coexist with Canada."
"Indeed."
"But the South does not think so."
Direct.
Desperate.
"Slavery is outdated."
"That is why Britain abolished it."
"White people claim superiority."
"But enslave others."
"That is hypocrisy."
He spoke passionately.
I listened.
"Your sympathy is appreciated."
"But we cannot interfere in internal affairs."
"So you support us,
but cannot say it openly."
"Correct."
"That is reassuring."
Of course,
slavery should disappear.
But I did not say one thing.
Even without me,
it would vanish eventually.
And if the South disappears,
who supplies population to Canada?
Surely they understand this.
"However, Your Highness…"
"There are divisions in Canada."
"Are you aware?"
Finally.
A real question.
Now,
the conversation would become interesting.
***
Killian, the Duke of Canada and royal consort of the British Empire, stood in a very delicate position. At least, based on the information he had gathered so far, that was the conclusion Charles Francis Adams Sr. had reached.
To develop Canada, Killian had actively promoted immigration. Irish immigrants, black populations, German exiles who had lost their place after failed revolutions, and recently even Asian migrants crossing the Pacific. It would not be an exaggeration to call it a true melting pot of races.
What was remarkable was that the overwhelming majority of them supported the Duke and treated his words almost like divine gospel. Among them, the loyalty of royalists, Irish immigrants, and black citizens was especially intense, almost resembling religious devotion.
However, this war made it impossible for even such a solid support base to remain united. The wealthy elites who owned large factories and the working-class Irish and black laborers inevitably held different positions.
"Canada is divided…"
"Yes. Canada, like our United States, is a land of many different people. Black citizens despise the South, but others believe this war could bring significant benefits. In fact, there are signs that Southern rebels are attempting to contact Canadian factory owners."
"I see."
Canadian royalists tended to hold aristocratic values and had long maintained close ties with the South. On the other hand, Irish workers and black laborers despised both aristocrats and slavery. To satisfy the majority, the South had to be rejected, but considering the interests of the wealthy elite, it could not be ignored entirely.
Killian listened quietly as the ambassador explained the situation and the likely consequences.
"So your point is that maintaining neutrality may give extremists room to act. That is a reasonable concern."
"I cannot compare to Your Highness, but I feared that since you have been in London, you might not be fully aware of the local atmosphere."
"I have heard from my son that things in Canada are becoming unstable. Still, hearing it directly from you helps clarify matters. Thank you."
Killian nodded with a faint smile, and Adams inwardly rejoiced.
"Declaring neutrality alone is not enough. We must make our position clearer. I hear the South will be sending an envoy soon… though, if I recall correctly, the Union does not recognize them as a nation?"
"That is correct. This is not a war but a rebellion. Those so-called envoys have no legal standing."
"And yet, they will request recognition."
"Yes."
Killian remained calm, showing no reaction.
"Then let me offer you some information in return."
"Information?"
"The conditions the South has proposed to Canada. And likely to France and other European nations as well."
The terms assumed a permanent division between North and South and promised various economic privileges. There was even mention of supporting European expansion into South America.
Adams' expression stiffened.
"This… this is meaningless. As I said, they are not a legitimate state, so such proposals have no legal validity…"
"They will still ask for recognition. In fact, I did not reveal this in Parliament. If I had, the debate might have immediately shifted toward supporting the South."
"…Thank you. It seems we owe you a great deal."
Killian had already shown the utmost goodwill. Yet Adams had just tried to push him further.
"I… please disregard what I said earlier…"
"When their envoy arrives, I may choose to reveal this. If that happens, Parliament may lean in that direction."
Killian stopped there, but the meaning was clear.
Adams understood.
He had to return with better terms.
Otherwise, the situation could turn disastrous.
He left the palace with a troubled expression.
The South's proposal would become known soon enough, so there was no need to hide it. At first glance, it was tempting, but when considered carefully, it offered little real benefit.
For France or Spain, South America might be attractive. But for the current British Empire, and for me, it was not worth damaging long-term reputation. Canada was already growing, Australia was steadily being integrated, and a foothold had been secured in Asia. Even managing existing territories was already burdensome.
However, from the perspective of the United States, this was a devastating move. A permanent division, combined with European expansion into South America, would be unacceptable.
Of course, whether in politics or negotiation, revealing one's intentions was the most basic mistake. The goal was simple. Let both sides compete. Demand better terms. Then choose accordingly.
No European power would openly support slavery. Even if profit was tempting, no one would risk being remembered as a blatant imperial hypocrite. The correct approach was more refined. Appear to support the North, maintain balance, and quietly extract benefits from both sides.
Sell weapons to one side. Secure concessions from the other. Draw value from both.
The United States would weaken, and Canada would rise.
Reputation mattered. Far more than short-term gain. The British royal family must remain respected for centuries. If I were remembered as someone who exploited other nations to the bone, everything I had built could collapse.
So the method had to be clean. Subtle. Controlled.
After sending the ambassador away, I stretched out on the sofa in the reception room, picking at snacks while reports and newspapers lay scattered across the table. Everything had already been calculated. Both North and South were effectively restrained. All that remained was to observe which side proved more useful.
"Your Highness. A message has arrived from France."
Of course.
Rest never lasted long.
"What is it this time…"
It was from the French Prime Minister again. Always seeking advice, always relying on me. Still, having a pro-Killian figure in such a position was beneficial.
I opened the coded letter.
[After discussions, France believes this war presents an opportunity to intervene in Mexico and South America.]
[If Britain deploys its navy, we can deploy our army.]
[We may be able to bring the American continent under our influence.]
I paused.
So there were still people who did not care how history would judge them.
Perhaps I had underestimated this era.
The 19th century was truly dangerous.
***
If one had to name a country that almost always appeared among Europe's great powers since the Middle Ages, it would undoubtedly be France.
Even until the mid-19th century, French was treated as the international language, and it was natural for nobles and the upper classes across Europe to learn it. There was also a quiet pride that, despite being ruled by a dictator, France under Napoleon Bonaparte had once come close to placing all of Europe under its feet.
Of course, that was only past glory, and most intellectuals were well aware that reality was different.
France's current diplomatic policy was to remain a loyal ally of the British Empire and to solidify its position as the world's second strongest power behind it. This direction, established during the reign of Louis Philippe I, reflected France's unavoidable reality.
"What benefit is there in opposing the world's strongest power, Britain? If we cannot defeat them, then we should simply join them."
"In any case, the British Empire also needs reliable allies to maintain its position. By strengthening cooperation, we can secure second place. Refusing that would be foolish."
In practice, this approach had produced results. Although France had shed much blood in the war against Russia, it had brought down a powerful rival and secured control over the Holy Land. In Asia, it had tightened its grip on Indochina and, for its role in suppressing the Taiping Rebellion, had gained rights over Vietnam.
Contrary to the concerns of some intellectuals, Britain had not merely used France and discarded it. On the contrary, it had shared opportunities, such as pressuring Qing to facilitate France's acquisition of Vietnam, ensuring that assistance was properly rewarded.
Even so, there were many in France who resented becoming what they saw as Britain's subordinate.
"Was it not we who crushed Russia?"
"Britain fought alongside us."
"But we suffered the most losses, so why does Britain gain the most?"
The general public had little interest in complex explanations about power structures, diplomacy, or casualty rates. Such details did not resonate. Politicians understood this mood and began using it to strengthen their positions.
[France will not remain forever in second place. Who can say that France cannot rise to stand alongside Britain as the world's greatest power?]
Out of caution and diplomatic necessity, they avoided directly saying France would surpass Britain or inciting hostility. Instead, they claimed that the alliance itself was the path for France to become a great power.
Thanks to victories over Russia and the colonization of Vietnam, François Guizot maintained his position and firmly upheld this direction.
"So the government is seriously considering intervention?"
"Yes, Your Majesty. The Southern envoy, John Slidell, has promised that if the Confederacy survives, it will support European expansion into territories south of the United States."
"Is that not just an empty promise?"
"If they fail to honor it, we can extract compensation afterward."
The South's primary goal was recognition. If Britain and France acknowledged them, the rest of Europe would follow.
"Will the people accept sending troops again?"
"The war with Russia is already nearly a decade past. This time, the benefits are substantial."
"But that assumes victory. If results are unclear, criticism will be severe. Even the throne could be shaken."
The current king, Louis, lacked firm authority. The French people, known for their rebellious nature, treated criticism of royalty almost as entertainment. His position depended heavily on the achievements of his predecessor.
"Your Majesty, consider the rewards of success. What does France lack compared to Britain? Influence in the Americas."
France held colonies in Africa and Southeast Asia, but unlike Britain, it lacked a strong foothold in the New World. Its former jewel, Saint-Domingue, had become independent as Haiti.
"If the South becomes our bridge into America, there is no reason not to recognize them. But can they truly win?"
"Our analysis suggests that alone, victory is uncertain, perhaps sixty to seventy percent. Even if they win, the cost will be immense."
France had learned from the past when it supported American independence and gained little in return.
"Then it is not worth it…"
"But if Britain joins with its navy, the chance rises above ninety. With British land forces, victory is almost certain."
"…Involving Britain? They have declared neutrality."
"Diplomatic positions can change easily. The question is how to persuade them."
Louis recalled his father's advice to maintain good relations with Killian, whose warning had once helped the French royal family survive revolution.
"Then I will send a coded message to His Highness."
If that failed, Guizot was prepared to cross the Channel himself.
France's true concern was not Britain, but Prussia. Though currently allies, no alliance was permanent. If interests diverged, conflict could come at any time. Before that happened, France needed a foothold in the Americas.
In this century, colonial holdings were seen as the measure of national strength.
I often joked about this being the romantic 19th century, but I realized again how naive that thought was.
Romance, in this era, was simply another word for barbarism.
The great powers of Europe were always ready to justify slavery if it suited their interests.
I knew from history that France had considered intervening in the American Civil War, but I had not expected them to push so aggressively. The butterfly effect of history was indeed terrifying.
Receiving a direct letter from François Guizot urging intervention might seem like an opportunity, but rushing in would be foolish. It would expose our intentions too clearly.
Before responding, I needed to understand France's motives, public opinion, and how much sacrifice they were willing to accept.
As expected, when Britain replied with neutrality, Guizot crossed the Channel and came to London.
"Your Highness, how can you treat us this way?"
"People might misunderstand if they hear you speak like that."
He spoke as if he were Britain's Prime Minister.
"Did you not save the French government and royal family from revolution? That makes you a friend of France."
"Not all who spoke of revolution were the same…"
"In any case, Britain and France are like brothers, bound through you."
"Scripture also says the left hand should not know what the right hand does."
"And it says to love your brother as yourself. This is the moment for decisive action."
I responded calmly.
"Friendship requires clear accounting, especially in matters of money. France is our most important ally, but that is precisely why we cannot decide such matters based on sentiment."
"Then let us discuss the benefits."
They were no longer even hiding it.
"Supporting the South could be seen as supporting slavery. Are you prepared for that risk?"
"We will frame it as protecting French citizens and businesses in the South."
"That justification is weak. Most investments are in the North."
"Justifications can be created. Once we act, the rest will follow."
"…"
"It is like the war with Russia. France will lead. Britain only needs to match its previous level of support."
So now they wanted land forces as well.
If Britain committed fully, the North would collapse. But the cost to reputation would be severe.
Rejecting outright would also mean losing potential gains.
"Then how about this. France intervenes first, and once sufficient justification exists, the Royal Navy enforces a blockade."
"That is too disadvantageous. At minimum, Britain must join at the same time. Otherwise, we may have to abandon the plan."
He tried to pressure me.
But withdrawal was no longer an option for them.
"Prime Minister, I assure you, that will not happen."
"…What do you mean?"
"This is confidential. Spain is already planning to supply the South with large quantities of weapons and even warships."
"…Spain?"
"After the war, they intend to expand again into Mexico and South America."
Their plans overlapped perfectly.
If they hesitated, others would take the opportunity.
At that moment, the entire board had already fallen into my hands.
The darkening expression on Guizot's face made that perfectly clear.