After speaking with Tōjō Hidetoshi, I decided to treat the outbreak of war not as a variable, but as a certainty.
If war were to break out in Asia, it would inevitably create significant repercussions, so it was necessary to calculate the impact in advance and prepare accordingly.
Upon returning to the mainland, I convened a meeting with Prime Minister Charles Wellesley and the leaders of both parties.
"But are Japan and Joseon truly capable of waging war against Qing?"
That was the common question.
Declaring war was one thing. Being capable of sustaining it was another.
"In truth, I believed they would need at least another ten years of development. I did not expect them to act so quickly."
"Then they are overextending themselves. Is there not a high chance they will collapse on their own?"
"Perhaps. But Qing is in such disarray that they may not lose. That is likely what Japan and Joseon are counting on."
War was relative.
Even a weak nation could win if its opponent was weaker.
Qing had barely survived the Taiping Rebellion with European assistance and continued to deteriorate.
After the death of the Xianfeng Emperor, the Tongzhi Emperor ascended as a child, and Empress Dowager Cixi seized power.
Prince Gong struggled to stabilize the empire, but by this point Qing was effectively beyond recovery.
Compared to original history, European interference was even more severe, making meaningful reform nearly impossible.
From the perspective of European powers, a weak Qing under Cixi was far more desirable than a strong one under Prince Gong.
Qing had attempted modernization through the Self-Strengthening Movement, but European powers saw it only as an opportunity for exploitation.
This was precisely why Joseon and Japan had been able to modernize more easily.
Their position as allies of the British Empire had also helped.
Given these conditions, Charles Wellesley, Benjamin Disraeli, and William Gladstone all reached the same conclusion.
Japan and Joseon held the advantage.
I agreed.
Not because they were strong, but because Qing was too weak.
"If I were in their position, I would also choose this moment. Even if they grow stronger, if Qing stabilizes, defeating them will become impossible."
"That is true. Qing is attempting reform."
Though largely superficial, Qing had begun establishing arsenals, planning naval construction, and sending students abroad.
I knew these efforts would fail.
But Japan and Joseon did not.
They might believe Qing could grow stronger.
"We have been assured that Japan will not act against British interests. Therefore, we should discuss how to use this war to our advantage."
"I agree. If we reach consensus in advance, we can act faster than other nations."
Wellesley spoke first. Disraeli and Gladstone followed.
"France and Prussia will also respond. We must act before they do."
"This concerns national interest. I will persuade the Liberal members."
"When do you expect the war to begin?"
"Perhaps next year. At the latest, the year after."
That was the logical estimate.
It was wrong.
The very next day, a telegram arrived from Hong Kong via India.
"…Repeat that."
"Japan has launched a surprise attack on Qing. War has begun."
I reread the telegram.
The contents did not change.
"A surprise attack? Without a declaration of war?"
"That is Qing's claim."
"…They truly did it."
Even knowing Japan's tendencies, I had not expected them to ignore our agreement.
Charles Wellesley, who had been in my office, spoke with disbelief.
"This violates the Treaty of Paris."
"It does."
"Your Majesty signed that treaty on Japan's behalf."
"I did."
"Then this is a direct insult to Your Majesty."
That was not incorrect.
"They assured us they would not harm British interests. It seems their definition differs from mine."
Did they truly believe humiliating the King of Canada would not affect the Empire?
If so, they would pay for it.
"We must summon the Japanese ambassador immediately."
"He is already here, waiting."
"Good. Let us hear what he has to say."
The ambassador entered, pale, and bowed deeply.
"Your Majesty, I have no excuse."
"Of course not. I signed the treaty for you, and this is how you repay it."
"I accept full responsibility."
"Responsibility? Was the weather unfavorable again?"
He did not answer.
Instead, he handed over a document.
"This… explains everything."
I read it.
"…What is this?"
I passed it to Wellesley.
He reacted the same way.
Japan was truly something else.
Before the attack, Japanese forces had already completed preparations.
They awaited only the order.
Ōkubo Toshimichi still hesitated.
"Ōkubo, have you decided?"
"Saigō Takamori, is this truly the right course?"
"The Emperor and the House support it."
"They are figureheads. That is expected."
He understood why the plan had been approved.
Qing was weak, but its numbers were vast.
A prolonged war would be costly.
The only solution was a decisive opening strike.
A surprise attack.
But that left no time for a declaration of war.
"We already faced criticism for attacking Russia without a declaration. It was written into international law."
"The military has proposed a solution."
"Seppuku? That is absurd. If anyone must do it, it should be the one who proposed the plan."
The naval proposal was simple.
Attack first, destroy the fleet, then have the responsible party commit ritual suicide to appease Europe.
Ōkubo rejected it.
The army proposed an alternative.
"We will send a declaration. But it will fail to arrive."
"…Explain."
"We send diplomats by ship. Then sink the ship."
Ōkubo stared in disbelief.
"It would provide evidence."
It would also prove Japan's recklessness.
"The military has agreed. Parliament supports it. You must decide."
Ōkubo sighed.
He finally understood why His Majesty King Killian had warned him to restrain the military.
But it was too late.
The decision had already been made.
The ship would sink.
The attack would proceed.
Ōkubo Toshimichi realized he no longer had the power to stop it.
***
The war between Qing and Japan began with a surprise attack.
For Japan to directly attack the ruling dynasty of China was, in itself, an extraordinary event.
Even if Qing had become a state that endlessly yielded concessions, that had only been in relation to European powers.
In truth, it was not only Qing that had declined, but all of Asia that had been subjected to European encroachment.
From that perspective, Japan, another Asian nation, attacking Qing carried significant implications.
There had been warning signs.
Qing referred to the islands as Diaoyu, while Japan called them Senkaku, and disputes over maritime rights had continued to intensify.
Even so, almost no one believed Japan would go so far as to wage war against Qing.
It was only natural.
Who would imagine an East Asian state attacking Qing?
Yet it happened.
And in the form of a surprise attack.
Embassies around the world sent frantic telegrams. Conferences were convened to determine what was happening in Asia. All attention turned toward the region.
Joseon, which had strengthened its alliance with Japan, was equally shocked.
Its ally had launched a surprise attack without even issuing a declaration of war, leaving Joseon uncertain how to respond.
Even the British Empire expressed displeasure at Japan's violation of the Treaty of Paris, and it was no exaggeration to say Japan had become the center of global attention.
Then which nation was the most bewildered?
Not the signatories of the Treaty of Paris.
Not Joseon, whose ally had suddenly run out of control.
Not the British Empire, which had been assured no harm would come to its interests.
It was Qing.
"What nonsense is this? What have those fools been thinking to act like this?"
Caught completely off guard, Qing descended into chaos.
Empress Dowager Cixi held supreme authority but had little understanding of military affairs. Prince Gong, constrained by her, could not assert himself.
As a result, no proper response had been prepared.
Even during the escalating maritime disputes, the court had simply ignored Japan, believing it incapable of real action.
Japan had been dismissed as insignificant.
But as provocations intensified, Qing could no longer ignore them.
They gathered warships as a warning.
It was meant only as a show of force.
Yet Japan, already planning a surprise attack, seized the opportunity and struck immediately.
Fujian Governor-General Li Yian urgently reported the situation.
"Japan has attacked. We must respond."
But Empress Dowager Cixi, enjoying a boat ride on the lake at the Summer Palace, showed little concern.
"Is this truly so serious? Were we not assured they could do nothing?"
"It was a surprise attack."
"Then dispatch the fleet and repel them. Why bring such matters to me?"
She continued eating delicacies, irritated at being disturbed.
"The Fujian Fleet has been severely damaged. We must mobilize the Beiyang or Guangdong fleets."
"The Fujian Fleet was defeated by such a nation? How disgraceful."
"It was not fully prepared."
Qing had attempted to build modern fleets, but corruption and extravagance had diverted funds.
Much of the budget had been spent on palace construction.
As a result, the fleets lacked modern ships and even ammunition.
When the attack came, they could not respond.
Even the crews lacked training.
The defeat was inevitable.
"Can the Guangdong Fleet repel them?"
The officials hesitated.
The truth was clear.
Even if deployed, success was uncertain.
The fleets were incomplete.
The navy was inexperienced.
The reality was bleak.
Nevertheless, the court delayed.
Meetings were postponed.
Days passed.
Then another crisis arrived.
A document from Joseon.
It demanded that Qing withdraw from territories around the Tumen and Songhua rivers, effectively surrendering vast lands.
The court dismissed it as absurd.
Joseon's envoy was expelled.
One week later, Joseon's declaration of war arrived in Beijing.
Japan had attacked.
Now Joseon advanced into Manchuria.
"I never expected to see this in my lifetime."
At least Joseon had issued warnings and a declaration of war.
Their justification drew from long-standing disputes, though exaggerated.
Compared to Japan, it seemed almost reasonable.
Still, the logic was flawed.
By that reasoning, any nation could reclaim ancient territories.
War had begun.
Battles were already occurring along the border.
No nation had yet declared a formal stance.
All waited for the British Empire.
Joseon and Japan were allies.
It was only natural.
I considered my options.
Exploiting the situation was tempting.
But France and Prussia remained uncertain variables.
Without prior coordination, acting prematurely was risky.
So I made my decision.
"I will act as mediator between Japan, Joseon, and Qing."
"Understood."
The Rothschild representative nodded.
"I did not expect your interest in this conflict."
"I am simply observing. Though perhaps there is opportunity."
"Opportunity?"
"If France proposes neutrality first, will you still intervene?"
"That would change matters."
"If so, perhaps you could wait."
Now that was interesting.
"Explain."
"Joseon claims historical rights to Manchuria. If such claims succeed, it could create… opportunities."
I understood immediately.
They were already considering how to profit from territorial claims.
Even in chaos, they saw opportunity.
Impressive.
I nodded calmly.
In truth, this could be useful.
Things were becoming far more interesting.
***
If one were to summarize the international order of the nineteenth century in a single phrase, it would be survival of the fittest.
It was an age in which powerful imperialist states exploited weaker nations, annexed them, and at times absorbed them entirely.
The British Empire, France, and most of the European great powers fundamentally acted according to their own will.
However, in reality, only a handful of nations in Europe could truly enjoy such freedom.
The world was not infinite, and fertile land was limited.
The British Empire allowed no nation to approach India. France was deeply fixated on Algeria and Indochina. Prussia had also begun to pursue overseas colonies, and by this point in the late nineteenth century, there were few places left to claim.
In such a situation, if any nation recklessly attempted to seize new fertile colonies, it would be struck down immediately by the great powers.
That was why smaller European nations constantly watched Britain and France, hoping for even a chance to establish colonies in Africa.
Even the great powers themselves now had to justify their actions to some degree when managing colonies.
Otherwise, resentment would grow over the perception that they were monopolizing everything.
If even the great powers faced such constraints, smaller nations had no freedom at all.
Unless they had overwhelming justification, they were not even permitted to wage war.
More often than not, their conflicts only invited intervention from the great powers and ended without achieving anything.
At first, European intellectuals believed the war between Joseon, Japan, and Qing would follow this pattern.
To them, Asia was like livestock being raised for eventual consumption, and now those livestock were fighting among themselves.
Even if Japan had initiated the war, it was still seen as nothing more than a subordinate state under the British Empire.
Qing, already coveted by every European power, could not be shared with such minor nations.
France initially intended to intervene, side with Qing, and use the opportunity to expand its influence in Asia.
"At this opportunity, France may support Qing and secure greater concessions."
"But Japan and Joseon are allied with the British Empire."
"We do not intend to suppress them completely. We simply wish to deepen our position within Qing."
The government was largely in agreement.
Japan had launched a surprise attack without a declaration of war, which could be used as justification to force them to withdraw.
Joseon's claim was even more absurd, as it justified invasion based on ancient territory.
France believed it could easily intervene, suppress both, and make Qing indebted to them.
However, within a week, France reversed its position.
France declared neutrality, stating that as long as it suffered no harm, it would not intervene.
It also proposed an international investigation into the legitimacy of Manchuria, suggesting that each nation's claim be examined.
This was effectively a refusal to intervene.
Qing could never accept such a proposal.
If the legitimacy of Manchuria were questioned, it would undermine the foundation of its rule.
European nations were surprised.
"Then this should settle things."
"Yes. France's decision is appreciated."
Behind this decision was financial influence.
The Rothschild family had offered to reduce interest on French loans in exchange for neutrality.
France, engaged in massive infrastructure and military projects, welcomed this eagerly.
"But this is strange. You are businessmen. Why sacrifice guaranteed profit over a distant conflict?"
"We are interested in whether Joseon's claim can gain international recognition."
"What of the British Empire?"
"They have already agreed."
With both France and the British Empire neutral, intervention became unlikely.
Yet the true motive remained hidden.
The Rothschild family was considering something far greater.
If Joseon's claim to ancestral land gained recognition, it could set a precedent.
A precedent that could later be applied elsewhere.
They envisioned the possibility of leveraging nationalism to pursue even larger ambitions.
Not out of pure ideology, but as an unprecedented business opportunity.
If a new state were to be established, who would it rely on?
Naturally, those with the greatest financial power.
The Rothschilds intended to position themselves at the center of that process.
Thus, they supported the situation from the shadows.
France's declaration of neutrality quickly reached the British Empire, and I began to think again.
"As expected, if France remains neutral, we should do the same."
"For now, aligning with France is the best option."
"Money truly moves nations. France is effectively tolerating Joseon's claim."
"It is not support. It is neutrality."
"Which is the same thing in practice."
From Qing's perspective, the proposal itself was unacceptable.
Manchuria was sacred.
Yet ironically, Qing's own policies had left it defenseless.
When war began, Joseon forces advanced rapidly and seized key positions.
"Your Majesty, what is the likelihood that Qing will abandon Manchuria?"
"Zero."
"Decisive."
"They will never relinquish it voluntarily. By force, perhaps half."
I had initially estimated far lower odds.
But now, with new variables in play, the probability had increased.
"What is this new factor?"
I explained briefly.
"If Joseon succeeds in reclaiming ancestral land, others may attempt the same."
"That is… dangerous thinking."
"Indeed. But useful."
The implications were clear.
If such a precedent were established, it could reshape global politics.
"For now, we let France deal with the consequences. We focus on the Pacific."
I turned to the map.
"Here is what matters. Taiwan. Hainan. These must remain within our control."
A line stretching from Hainan to Hong Kong to Taiwan and Shanghai.
If completed, it would dominate the region.
"The issue is how to achieve it."
"This war provides the opportunity."
"And Japan and Joseon?"
"We sell weapons."
"To both sides?"
"Yes. We remain neutral."
"But would that not prolong the war?"
"It does not matter. Qing cannot use them effectively."
Corruption and incompetence ensured that.
"Then what of France and Prussia?"
"They must be given something as well."
"And what would that be?"
"Prussia can be given something elsewhere."
I pointed further south.
"The Philippines."
"That belongs to Spain."
"For now."
Wellesley laughed, thinking it a joke.
It was not.
History would move.
And when it did, we would be ready.
***
As Killian had confidently told Charles Wellesley, the nations of Asia welcomed the British Empire's offer to sell them weapons with open arms.
British firearms technology had advanced rapidly during the American Civil War, and a full mass production system had now been established.
For Asian nations, most of whose soldiers were still equipped with outdated muzzle-loading rifles, such weapons were impossible to ignore.
Of course, their economic capacity meant that unless they emptied their national treasuries, they could not purchase weapons in large quantities, so the actual volume of purchases remained limited.
The true major buyer was Qing, which had been attacked by Japan and Joseon.
"Excellent. If the British Empire is willing to supply such quantities of weapons, we will naturally purchase them. The Minister of Commerce has also instructed us to actively consider procurement."
"That is good to hear. In that case, shall we include not only firearms but also warship construction in a single agreement?"
"That would be most welcome."
The most powerful figure in Qing was Empress Dowager Cixi.
Below her, influential officials such as Li Hongzhang and Zuo Zongtang led modernization efforts.
However, Zuo Zongtang advocated strengthening the army to counter Russia, while Li Hongzhang emphasized naval development, and the two were not on good terms.
In the end, both initiatives proceeded, with Li focusing on the navy and Zuo leading a major campaign in Xinjiang.
This was precisely why Joseon had been able to advance north with confidence, as Zuo Zongtang's army of nearly one hundred thousand troops was tied down far away.
Meanwhile, Li Hongzhang's navy had already been shattered by Japan.
The situation was critical.
If Zuo succeeded in his campaign while Li failed at sea, it was obvious whom Empress Dowager Cixi would favor.
At first, it had been assumed that Japan and Joseon could be crushed easily.
Reality proved otherwise.
More precisely, Qing could not even commit its full strength.
Most of its forces were tied up in Xinjiang.
The navy had already suffered devastating losses.
The Beiyang Fleet was still in formation, and the Nanyang Fleet plan had been abandoned.
Only the Guangdong Fleet remained operational, and even that lacked experience.
Defeat at sea against Japan would be catastrophic for Li Hongzhang's reputation.
No one would accept excuses.
He had advocated naval expansion, yet suffered defeat.
The conclusion would be simple.
Failure.
Thus, he sought to compensate through quantity.
He persuaded Empress Dowager Cixi and began purchasing weapons in massive quantities.
"First, we will purchase up to one hundred thousand of the British Empire's new rifles in phases. In addition, warships, officer training, and organizational guidance must all be included."
The scale of Qing's purchases dwarfed those of Japan and Joseon combined.
Despite modernization efforts, the fundamental gap in national strength remained overwhelming.
Just as Carthage under Hannibal had ultimately fallen to Rome, tactics could not overcome strategy.
And Japan and Joseon were no Hannibal.
At best, they were Hasdrubal.
Qing intended to overwhelm everything with resources.
Governor Parker, the British plenipotentiary overseeing negotiations, began to believe Qing would ultimately win the war.
Killian had predicted that Qing would collapse under its own weight, but perhaps this time he was mistaken.
That belief lasted only until Qing's representative spoke again.
"Governor Parker, the scale of the contract is agreed upon, but could we adjust certain details?"
"What do you mean?"
"As you can see here, you agreed to repurchase our old rifles as part of the deal. We would like to adjust the price."
"The price is already fair. Once you use the new rifles, you will understand their value."
"You misunderstand. We are not asking to lower it. Quite the opposite."
The official produced another document.
The content was nearly identical, but one detail differed.
"The reported value of the repurchased rifles will be reduced by approximately twenty percent."
"Yes. The amount your country receives will remain unchanged. There is no loss on your side."
The implication was obvious.
The official intended to divert twenty percent of the funds for himself.
"I am afraid I cannot assist with this."
"There is no need. You need only remain unaware."
Governor Parker signed the agreement, feeling faint.
Now he understood why Killian had been so certain.
There was no chance these weapons would reach the soldiers who needed them.
Joseon.
Today it referred to the current state, but in the distant past it had been the name of the first Korean kingdom.
Many believed their nation was the successor to that ancient state.
Perhaps that belief explained the current situation.
"This is truly the land of our ancestors. I never expected we would advance this far so easily."
Commander Eo Jae-yeon looked across the land with awe.
Having passed the military examination and risen through the ranks, he had joined the reformist faction under Kim Jwa-geun after witnessing British forces firsthand.
From that moment, he had dreamed of strengthening Joseon's army.
Now, leading troops into Liaoxi, he felt overwhelmed.
"What of General Yang Heon-su?"
"He has secured the Liaodong region."
"So Liaoxi was not unique. Good. We will fortify our position and await further orders."
The objective had been to secure Liaodong and Liaoxi, then observe Qing's response.
It had been expected to take time.
Instead, Qing's defenses collapsed almost immediately.
Even reinforcements were easily defeated.
Eo Jae-yeon and Yang Heon-su could hardly believe it.
Had they truly feared such an enemy?
"Reports from Japan?"
"They are also victorious. Qing cannot match them at sea. Japan now intends to annex the Diaoyu Islands."
"Incredible."
Qing, once so formidable, now seemed like a paper tiger.
Perhaps it was a trap.
Perhaps a counterattack was coming.
Even so, Qing's response remained slow.
Morale soared.
Confidence grew.
Perhaps even all of Manchuria could be taken.
The question was how to govern it.
Eo Jae-yeon drafted a report for the king, describing victory, while gazing over the vast plains.
Joseon had long claimed to value peace and scholarship.
That was no longer true.
No one was immune to the allure of conquest.
Especially not a nation that had endured humiliation and subordination.
Now, as they pushed Qing back, a sense of exhilaration spread.
Across Joseon, a single determination emerged.
To erase the past.
To reclaim everything.